Overheard On The Street
Here’s what they’re saying at mid-day:
Frank Gretz, Market Analyst, Shields
& Co.: “When this rally began back on October 12-13, it seemed like a
trading low and not a major low. The recent low is similar to May, but now we
have the overhang of the summer trading range to deal with, and the major low
ingredients still seem to be missing, perhaps the most important being
sentiment. What little fear did creep into the picture a couple of weeks ago
quickly dissipated. Put/Call ratios have backed off and institutional money
managers are more bullish than they’ve been in years. And why not? The market
rallies every year between November 1 and December 31 (since 1995 at least).
“And yet, there are some potential worries out there — the global
economy is slowing, the outcome of the election could prove disappointing,
there’s a potential currency crisis cooking in the Pac-Rim again, and so on.
There’s plenty to worry about, but there is no worry, and that’s not the way
major uptrends begin.”
Paul Rabbitt, President,
RabbittAnalytics.com: “With regard to Presidential first-year winners, the
top sector is healthcare with hospital management, winning 83% of election years
and averaging a 28.4% return, followed by drugs, and medical supplies and
equipment. Non-durables like beverages, household products, tobaccos, cosmetics
and foods also out-perform due to their consistent, non-economically sensitive
nature. Most consumer services like hotel-motels, broadcast media,
entertainment, restaurants, and publishing also generally outperform.”
John Roque, Vice President, Arnhold and
S. Bleichroeder: “The best thing we have going for us right now is that we
are not overbought. Overbought reading in strong markets mean virtually nothing
because the strong get stronger, but in weak markets, overbought readings
provide investors with opportunities to reduce positions. While we don’t see the
Dow moving above 11,000, the S&P above 1475, or Nasdaq above 3650, rallies
to these levels are reasonable.”