Pullback Or Rollover?

The expected FOMC rate cut was giving the markets the
lift it needed when news of Merck’s earnings bombshell hit the tape and
knocked the legs out from under the ongoing rally in the stock index futures.
The hit drove the Dow futures
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down from a high 10,025 to a
close near its intraday low. Nasdaq 100 futures
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managed to
close positive, but were pulled down as well and tailed off after the news.
S&P futures

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slipped below their recent uptrend line. All of the
index futures are now trading in three-day pullbacks from their recent highs.

Treasuries were boosted again Tuesday as the Merck news triggered an exodus out
of the stock index futures, with both T-bonds
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and 10-year
notes

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pulling off their low for the second straight day.
However,
both closed in weak fashion and have drawn out bearish tails on Tuesday’s bar.

Cocoa
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rallied out of its pullback to a
38.2% retracement to gain 69 points to close at 1290, while coffee
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continues to pull back off its low, yet appears to have formed a
double bottom. Sugar
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broke down below the 20-day moving
average for the first time since the middle of October, making its uptrend now
suspect. Orange juice
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fell 1.55 to 89.90, but seems to be
finding support around its 50-day moving average, and cotton
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made an attempt at a rally, but is still tracing out a head-and-shoulders following its run-up off of 20-year lows.

Cattle contracts started the day mixed, but firmed up
throughout trading as buyers stepped in. Live cattle
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started
to make a move to the upside out of a pullback on the daily chart, and feeder
cattle

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also found buyers into the close, reversing off its low
and leaving a potentially bullish tail. Pork bellies
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bounced
off the 50-day moving average, but are still seemingly forming a head-and-shoulders top, with lean hogs
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gapping down and hitting a new
contract low.

Corn
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finished unchanged at 219 1/2
despite the recent sale of over 700,000 metric tons to China in the past two
weeks and possibly due to the USDA’s unchanged demand forecast. Wheat
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rose over 3 points, but still continues to be range-bound, while both
soybeans
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and soybean oil
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fell to the
downside out of triangle patterns. Soy meal
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continues to make
lower lows, finishing down 0.70 at 146.90.

Copper
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looks as if it is beginning a
rally out of a pullback to an area near the 50% retracement level, and silver

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closed on its 50-day moving average. Gold
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is
continuing to trade in a low-volatility situation near its contract low.

Energy futures sold off early in the session, but found
some support and recouped at least part of their losses. Crude oil
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fell amid news and speculation of Russia’s production cuts being of
no effect in curtailing supply. Unleaded gasoline
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is
retesting the November lows, while natural gas
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traded in a
narrow-range inside day. Heating oil
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slipped slightly, but
held up at support near Friday’s low.

Finally, in the currencies, dollar index futures
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weakened in Tuesday’s trading and seem to be stuck in a two-week
range between its high of 116.80 and its low of 115.27. This aided the
British pound

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in its attempt to recapture its 50-day moving
average. Euro FX futures
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sported a second consecutive strong
close, while Swiss francs
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did as well. The Canadian dollar
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is forming a loose flag above the 50-day moving average, and the
Japanese yen

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took a day to take a breather in the midst of its
implosion.