Still October; Semis Stung

An earnings warning from National Semiconductor
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helped trigger a
selloff in the semiconductor group Tuesday which sent the Nasdaq down 1.4%.
Strength in cyclicals and banks, however, kept both the Dow and S&P 500
positive, with gains of 1.2% and 0.2%, respectively.

Volume picked up by about 10% over Monday’s levels, as 1.85 billion shares
traded on the Nasdaq and 1.15 billion shares changed hands on the NYSE.

Despite the lingering anxieties over the technology sector, several analysts
continued to tout optimistic forecasts for stocks as the fourth quarter
progresses.

“The low is in, basically. It’s always in October, and basically the low
is in place right now. There’s also a four-year cycle in economics which happens
to be linked to the Presidential election cycle, so in an election year, you
normally run through the election upwards and up through inauguration day as a
honeymoon period,” said Robin Griffiths, Chief Technical Analyst, HSBC.

“Some Presidents get a really long honeymoon period. However you stack
it up, from the 19th of October, which was the low, through to the year-end and
into January, the fourth quarter will be the strongest quarter of the
year,” he added.

According to preliminary numbers, the Nasdaq fell 48.92 to 3419.77, the Dow
gained 121.35 to 10393.07, and the S&P 500 added 2.35 to 1398.13.

Top sectors were forest and paper products
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, up 7.2%,
chemicals
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, up 5.4%, transportation
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, up 3.4%, and
banking
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, up 2.9%.

On the down side were biotech
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, down 2.8%, oil services
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,
down 3.3%, and semiconductors
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, down 7.9%.

Pummeled after its earnings warning was National Semi, which plunged 12 11/16
or 34% to 24 1/4 and sent shivers through the rest of the technology sector.

Also weak in the chips were LSI Logic
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, down 11%, Altera
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,
down 11%, and Xilinx
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, down 8%.

Dow winners that kept the index positive included International Paper
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,
up 9.7%, GE
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, up 7.2%, and Honeywell
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, up 6.7%. Under pressure
in the Dow were Intel
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, down 3.0%, Home Depot
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, down 3.3%, and
Hewlett Packard
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, down 6.0%.

After the bell, Amazon
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posted narrower-than-expected losses, and
that has helped the e-tailing giant jump in after-hours trading. After closing
at 29 1/2, Amazon was trading up to 33 3/8 in post-close action.

Upcoming economic news due out this week includes September’s existing home sales on Wednesday and third quarter GDP on Friday. Estimates look for 5.05
million existing home sales and for a GDP number easing down to 3.5% from the second quarter’s blistering 5.6% pace.