The Week That Was

On the surface, the week that was was.

On the surface, the Naz was able to
consolidate its hefty run-up in orderly fashion.

On the surface, the Naz was able to
dodge any blatant distribution, the likes of which have not been spied in four
weeks.

On the surface, the semi segment was
able to digest its recent gains without indigestion.

On the surface, the bellwether set was
able to find a thread of leadership — even if it came from an unlikely source.

However, beneath the surface, there
was more than one negative, namely the return of bad-news-equals-bad-news in the
latter half of the week, punctuated loudly by PMC
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and Corning.

Beneath the surface, technically, the
failure of IXIA
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, Comverse
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, Microsemi
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,
etcetera, was the clearest indication yet that growth
is not ready.

Crude, after peaking near $35 and
falling to $25, has now bumped up against the $30 barrier.

The problem with this sector is that
most issues in it are either illiquid and/or lower-priced.

Their inability to trend as well as
growth issues makes them questionable targets for the intermediate trader, as
opposed to the swing trader.

Part of the reason for this is that,
in many oils, institutional sponsorship simply isn’t there in big numbers.

Chalk that up to the sector’s dim
secular growth potential and dimmer earnings visibility.

The chief outperformer in the oil
patch has been the explorers.

One, Ocean Energy
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, is close
to the top of a four-month base.

Ditto for Remington Oil
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and its four-week pattern.

In the oil field services group,
McDermott
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followed through on big volume in the aftermath of
Thursday’s breakout of a three-month W base…other names here don’t set up.

Elsewhere, IBM
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moved out of
its weeklong triangle on higher flow, providing a semblance of leadership unlike
any other bell.

Check Point is the best-acting
glamour, and by factors.

In all, a somewhat encouraging week,
if not perfect, though few things ever are.