This May Bring Clarity

The
markets lost ground in another low-volume grind
south for the day.
Business news was dominated by negative outlooks form retailers, as current
speculation on the war with Iraq says it may be another two weeks for a second
UN resolution to clarify things. Markets don’t like uncertainty, so it may be
some time until real conviction returns. Tomorrow we get a fresh dose of
existing home sales and consumer confidence data.

The Dow Jones Industrial
Average

(
$INDU.X |
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closed -1.99% at 7,851.11. The S&P 500
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$SPX.X |
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closed -1.83% at 832.58. The Nasdaq
(
$COMPQ |
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closed -1.97% at
1,322.37.

Biggest winners on the session
were oil service
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$OSX.X |
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, +2.77%, natural gas
(
$XNG.X |
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, +1.10%, and
oil
(
$OIX |
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, +0.28%.

Leading to the downside were
airlines

(
$XAL.X |
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, -4.16%, transportation
(
$TRAN |
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,
-3.75%, biotechnology
(
$BTK.X |
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, -3.09%, and software
(
$GSO.X |
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,
-2.76%.

In economic news, the
treasury budget
came in at $11.1 billion vs. expectations of $10.0 Billion.

The Ten Year Note
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TYH3 |
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was +120 at 115 225.

The US dollar
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DXH3 |
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was -0.51 at 99.74.

Volume was below
average
, with the NYSE coming in at 1,194,628,000

and the Nasdaq at 1,226,819,000.

Market breadth was negative,
with NYSE declining issues over advancing issues by a ratio of 2.09, and down
volume over up volume by a 4.25 ratio. Nasdaq declining issues over advancing
issues came in at 2.11, and down volume beat up volume by a 3.13 ratio.

The

VIX
was +2.63 at 36.77. The

TRIN
was +1.12 at 2.03.

Biggest losers on the Dow were:

Alcoa
(
AA |
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, -3.94% at 19.95, Boeing
(
BA |
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,
-3.87% at 28.49, Honeywell
(
HON |
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, -3.46% at 23.39, United Tech
(
UTX |
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, -3.05% at 59.64, Wal-Mart
(
WMT |
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, -2.57% at 47.64, and
JP Morgan

(
JPM |
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, -2.53% at 22.30.

Stocks in the news:

Retailer JC Penney
(
JCP |
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, -4.67% at 19.39,
announced that it expects its same-store sales to fall 2-3% vs. previous
estimates of no change. 

Department store retailer Federated Department Stores
(
FD |
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, -2.97% at 24.82, said that it expects same-store sales to fall 7.5-8.5%
vs. previous estimates of a 4-5% decline.

Discount retailer Wal-Mart
(
WMT |
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, -2.57% at
47.64, said it expects same-store sales to come in at the low end of
expectations with growth at 2-4%.

Home improvement retailer Lowe’s
(
LOW |
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,
+5.77% at 38.10, has beaten its fourth-quarter earnings expectations by
$0.07 with profits of $0.40 per share.

Food services retailer Ahold
(
AHO |
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, -61.08% at
4.16, sold off after it announced that it has discovered accounting
irregularities, and its CEO and financial officers are quitting. Elsewhere in
the sector, Albertson’s
(
ABS |
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, -2.31% at 19.00, and Kroger
(
KR |
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,
-2.17% at 13.47.

Broadcasting and cable TV company Comcast Corp.
(
CMCSK |
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,
-4.61% at 24.60, has been upgraded by Morgan Stanley to “overweight” from
“equal-weight.”

Dow component General Electric
(
GE |
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, -1.59% at
23.42, is the focus of positive comments in a Barron’s article that
claims the stock’s valuation may pose a great buying opportunity.

Also in the Dow, entertainment monster Walt Disney
(
DIS |
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,
-2.40% at 16.61, has had its estimates reduced by JP Morgan to $0.64 per share
from $0.66 per share.

Chip maker QLogic
(
QLGC |
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, -3.89% at 34.29, is
the focus of negative comments in a New York Times story that claims the
company will face competition from new technology.

Mobile phone maker Nokia
(
NOK |
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PowerRating)
, -0.50% at 13.73,
has been upgraded by SG Cowen to “outperform” from “market perform.”

danielb@tradingmarkets.com