Thursday’s Futures Setups
The
March Dow futures (DJH2)
closed up 55.00 with increasing volume.
On a daily the chart the March futures are forming an ascending triangle. On
a weekly chart, it is showing a strong uptrend. If DJH2 can break out above
10,200 (it’s resistance level) with strong volume, the rally could continue. March
S&P 500 futures (SPH2)
closed at 1152.50 up 5.30. SPH2 has continued its trend with lower volume.
It is trading slightly below its 40-day moving average. While the March
NASDAQ 100
(NDH2)
closed higher to 1602.00 up 17.00, this proved to be key. On the daily chart the
March
Nasdaq is hanging on right above its support line at 1600 with lower volume.
March US dollar index (DXH2)
closed down -0.19 at 118.35. It broke out and closed above its resistance
line with stronger volume on 12/24. It continues to stay above that support
level. DXH2 may pull-back and retest the 118 level before moving back
upwards. The March Japanese yen (JYH2)
continued its decline, closing at 0.007675 down -0.000066. The yen halted
a nine-day tumble versus the dollar, its longest slide in four years, after a
Japanese finance official signaled the government may try to slow the currency’s
decline. Zembei Mizoguchi, director-general
of the Ministry of Finance international bureau, criticized big swings in the
yen. “It’s not good for daily (exchange-rate) moves to be too large,” and said
the ministry is “watching the situation,” according to the Dow Jones
Newswire. On the daily candle chart,
the yen has formed a gravestone doji, which is a
short-term bearish indicator.
March Corn (CH2)
closed down -2.74 to 208.75. CH2 broke below its support line (210.00) with
weaker volume.
Heating oil (HOF2)
rose on forecasts for colder-than-normal weather in the eastern two-thirds
of the U.S. Below-normal temperatures will last for the next 10 days in the
Midwest and Northeast, according to Belton, Missouri-based Weather Derivatives.
The regions account for 60 percent of U.S. residential gas use. The Northeast
consumes 75 percent of the nation’s heating oil. “There is real cold weather in
the Midwest and that has moved into the Northeast, which is increasing heat
demand,” said Al Zappulla, a trader at ABN Amro Inc. in New York. “Looking
ahead, everything we see for the next three weeks or so is bullish.”
|
Contract
|
Setup
|
Direction
|
Trigger
|
| Sugar (SBH2) |
pullback
|
down
|
below
|
| US dollar index (DXH2) |
continuation
|
up
|
above
|
| Canadian dollar (CDH2) |
s/t trend reversal
|
up
|
above
|
| Soybean oil (BOH2) |
resumption of trend
|
down
|
below
|
| Soybeans (SH2) |
new
|
           down |
 below Wednesday’s low |
| Heating Oil (HOF2) |
double bottom
|
            up |
 above Wednesday’s close |
| Unleaded Gas (HUF2) |
double bottom
|
             up |
 above Wednesday’s close |
Please note that while there are strong trends in
some commodities, one bar or a series of bars forming a setup can sometimes
indicate a contra move for the next day. This contra move may not be
long-lasting — maybe only for a day or two. Trading with the main trend is
always the highest probability trade.
Use stops on all your
trades.