Two Indications That War Is Imminent
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- Turkey’s parliament votes to allow US
troops into its country to attack Iraq from the north
It is critical that the US be allowed to use its bases in Turkey to
attack Iraq from the north in concert with planned attacks from the
south. This would help the US minimize any casualties, secure key oil
fields in Northern Iraq, and shorten the duration of the war. However,
Turkey and the US need to iron out political, economic, and military
concerns surrounding a possible war with Iraq. It appears as though a
partial agreement on military/command issues has been reached but the
economic portion is still being negotiated. Turkey is expected to
receive about $6 billion in US aid and up to $20 billion in secured
loans from the International community. Once this is
accomplished–highly likely despite all the rhetoric–the Turkish
government will submit a second motion to its parliament for a vote on
the deployment of US troops from its soil. Again, there is a high
probability that this measure will pass once it is introduced since,
as of last November, Turkey has a one-party government. After a vote
is passed, things should start to move quickly
- Terror Alerts in US and Israel will be
elevated to high (they are currently high).
Most intelligence officials have stressed the high degree of
probability that a terrorist attack will occur once a war begins. As a
result, the countries most likely to be targeted–the US and
Israel–will be on heightened alert but, at the same time, will not
want to advertise that an attack on Iraq is imminent. The terror alert
in the US, and Israel, is currently on high and is being attributed to
what was formerly believed to be a credible threat. Tom Ridge publicly
announced yesterday that the high state of alert would be removed but
did not know when. It is entirely possible that the alert will remain
on high from now until the beginning of an attack since, as I
mentioned earlier, the US will not want to advertise an attack on Iraq
before it happens.
In addition to some other themes that I will be touching upon this
week, I will continue to provide information about any developments in
the Middle East that would be useful for investors.
If you missed me on CNBC today, look for me on Fox with Neil Cavuto
Wednesday at 4:20 PM ET. We’ll be discussing the “Blueprint
For Trading The War With Iraq.”
Edward Allen