Wake Me When It’s Over
If you’re like me, you’ve probably
heard many — too many — references to the ’73-’74 bear.
Or the devastating ’73-’74
bear, as some like to describe.Â
Perhaps it was your father who said
something like “yeah, back in ’74, man, it was baaaad. The Dow fell
45% and some stocks lost 70%-80%.”
That one was the wipeout, the big
kahuna that was bigger than ’87, the one that shaped the minds and psyches of
many market men and women for years to come.
It wasn’t ’29 or the ’30s. But then
how many people still living went through the 30s?Â
Well, if nothing else, at least you’ll
never have to worry about being one-upped by your father.
No.Â
Thursday, the Naz fell to a fresh low
for the bear, dropping to a point that was 59.6% off its March 10 print high.
This is a whisper away from the extent
of the ’73-’74 wipeout in the Naz.
And, beneath the surface, many stocks
have gone down 70%-80% in this bear, some 90%.
And not just tertiary, $1 issues like
Books A Million, but blue-chip numbers like Cisco
(
CSCO |
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PowerRating) (-73%) and Sun
(
SUNW |
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(-72%).
~Â Â Â ~Â Â Â ~
And, finally, an
accumulation day.
 
Feature of the day: Applied Micro
(
AMCC |
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PowerRating),
bolting despite a warning that halted trading for an hour.
This is the bad-news-equals-good-news
vibe that prevailed in late December and the first few weeks of January that is
so necessary to any durable bottom.
The semis, which hadn’t been doing
much of anything until AMCC was reopened, quickly caught fire.
So this will be a segment to watch in
coming days, not so much for its price move, but for its move in reaction to
price.
Everyone knows tech is in the toilet.
Many think the consumer will
end up in the toilet.
Although this hasn’t happened thus
far, a few clouds have appeared on the horizon, namely the action of the
builders and retailers.
The builders lost more ground last
week than in any other week in months.
And the retailers look iffy.
Among the names, Pharmaceutical
Product Development
(
PPDI |
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PowerRating) sets up.
As does Walgreen
(
WAG |
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PowerRating).
The oils have idled in the past week,
good for their charts and good for the general market.
Here, Rowan
(
RDC |
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PowerRating), whose RS line
already hit a high, is one of the better lookers.
Ditto for Varco
(
VRC |
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PowerRating).
Beginning Friday, March 2, this
column will go on a three-week sabbatical, resuming Friday, March 23.