Why Aren’t Warnings Shaking Market?

December Nasdaq 100 futures
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sold off
before staging a bounce off its 11-week-old trendline, continuing to trade in a
pullback from high and recovering well despite warnings on Tuesday from Merck
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and American Express
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on Wednesday.
S&P futures
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have slightly undercut its uptrend, yet also
recovered and left a tail with a bullish bias on Wednesday’s bar, similar to the
action of the
Dow futures
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.

Treasuries appear to be setting up in pullbacks from
lows, as both T-bonds
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and
10-year notes
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rose today on the index futures selling.
Traders should wait for follow through, however, as both closed near the top of
their range.

Major players liquidating long positions drove down copper
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, yet it still managed to continue to bounce from an area near its
50% retracement level of the November low to high. Gold
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continues to pull back from its recent low, gaining 1.60 to 274.5, and
silver
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rose in an attempt to recapture the converging 20- and
50-day moving averages.

Cocoa
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continues to rally out of its
pullback from high, but slipped into the close to leave a bearish tail on
Wednesday’s bar, and leaving a question mark as to whether it has another push
to the upside left in it. Coffee
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continues to rise up off its
recent lows, in spite of producer selling holding prices down. March 2002 sugar
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recovered
after an earlier sell-off to close well, possibly keeping its recent strong
uptrend intact. Cotton
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is adding on to its head-and-shoulders
pattern after its strong run off of 20-year contract lows, and orange juice
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is probing beneath the 50-day moving average and appears to be headed downward
to the October gap.

Corn
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fell on commercial selling of
contracts despite the recent announcement of sales of more than one million
metric tons to China and other destinations in the past week. Wheat
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slipped as well on relatively thin trading volume and traded in a 2
point range for the session. Shorts continue to sell soybeans
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and have the futures looking as though they will retest the October low. SH2 pulled
soybean oil
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down along with it, dropping it below
the 50-day moving average. Soy meal
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rounded out the complex
by trading in a narrow-range inside day, dropping slightly to 146.70.

Energy futures on the NYMEX saw a boost on alleged short
covering after news of the escalation of violence between the Israelis and
Palestinians. Crude oil
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is still stuck around its contract
lows, while
unleaded gasoline
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has a nearly identical chart. Heating
oil

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is tracing out a bearish flag at its lows on the daily
chart, with
natural gas
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being the lone future to end in the red, closing
slightly negative at 2.719, down 0.084.

Meats sold off Wednesday, as
live cattle
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traded in an outside day to the downside, closing
near the bottom of its range. Feeder cattle
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performed in a
similar fashion, yet is attempting to push higher out of a bigger-picture head-and-shoulders. In the hogs,
lean hogs
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set yet another contract low and has fallen more
than $10 from the October low to Wednesday’s trading. Finally, pork bellies
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are forming the right shoulder to its head-and-shoulders pattern.

Dollar index futures
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gapped to the
downside, exhibiting further weakness following Tuesday’s slip lower. This aided
the
British pound
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, which is continuing to surge higher off its
November lows, in addition to the
euro FX futures
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, which closed above the 50-day moving average
for the first time in nearly seven weeks. The
Canadian dollar
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gapped significantly higher out of a flag
pattern, and
Swiss francs
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rose to trade above the 50-day moving average.
The
Japanese yen
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closed negative, but an outside day at its
contract low may be signaling a possible change in direction.