A Market of Many Knee Jerk Headline News Reactions and Rumors
The Central Banks cumulative SPX performance has the index up +12.4% YTD [H/L] and +14% from the 10/15/14 1821 low, which was reversed by the central bank manipulators following a -9.8% decline from the 2019 9/19/14 high [interesting timing I would say]
The market is obviously in the strong seasonal period, but I don`t think that means much of anything when the gains are manipulated, and the markets are controlled by the central banks like we have never seen before.
However, what it does mean is that there is little chance of any significant pullback this month despite the extremely O/B condition and so many technical and sentiment negative divergences. You can also expect lots of backing and filling price action into year end with the normal knee jerk reactions devoid of reality, but where day traders can profit
The OPEC no production cut decision created multiple day trading opportunities in the energy sector led by the large cap-integrated focus list stocks like XOM, COP and CVX, which are all components of the XLE
The XLE declined -9.8% in the Holiday shortened week after 4 straight down sessions, ending with a -6.4% in Fri 11/28 when OPEC announced their decision. I wonder how many Puts Saudi Arabia got long front running the obvious reaction by the knee jerk herd
The energy sector was obviously extremely O/S after that week, so Trading Service members were clearly attuned to day trading reversal opportunities coming into this week. The large-cap integrated oils advanced 3 straight sessions through Wed as the XLE was +2.7% before going -0.9% yesterday, but it was still very profitable for day traders on the long side because of the morning decline to extended volatility band levels
I have included some of the actual trades from this week and they are all based on my basic day trading strategies and symmetry. CVX was an initial Flip Top setup on 12/2 and if you missed the entry above 111.83 you got a second shot on the Slim Jim/1st CBO entry above 112.26 that ran to a 114.18 high, with the +2.0 VB at 114.31, so it was “thank you very much have a nice day”.
XLE and COP were defined opening range reversals on 12/3 that had profitable runs to their +1.5 VB and +2.0 VB levels, so it was another positive day for traders with a defined entry strategy and obvious symmetry to make an exit decision. “Thank you very much have a nice day”.
The energy trades selected on 12/4 were the XLE and CVX, which were both profitable, but it took two entries to win the game The XLE contracted volatility B/O was taken after the 80.86 low at the -1.0 VB zone but the trade entry above 81.19 was scratched after the reversal from 81.51
The second XLE entry above 80.73 was the contracted volatility range B/O on the 11:30AM bar as the European markets closed, following the 80.52 low in the -1.28 VB zone, and it ran to 81.77 so traders once again said “thank you very much have a nice day”.
The market is not correlated with reality, or even realistic perception, as it simply rigged. However, it is also a market of many knee jerk headline news reactions and rumors so that is where day traders can continue to capitalize