A Bearish Sign from the Semiconductors?
With 15% of the Technology Select Sector SPDRS ETF (NYSE: XLK) consisting of Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), it can be difficult to accurately assess the significance of the relative overperformance of the technology sector in general with the typically-leading semiconductor group in specific in recent days.
For most of the past several months, XLK and a key semiconductor exchange-traded fund like the Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF (NYSE: SMH) were trading very much in tandem. But as semiconductors have been to pull back of late, the growing realization that Apple might be pulling the technology sector along with it, has many traders paying more attention to the potential for a near-term bearish message from the selling in semiconductors.
What is there to be seen in the semiconductor market? Here, stocks like Marvell Technology Group (NASDAQ: MRVL) have closed lower for two days in a row – four out of the past six – and are nearing technically oversold territory above the 200-day moving average. Other semiconductor stocks like Kla-Tencor Corp (NASDAQ: KLAC) are already oversold. In fact,
shares of KLAC have closed in oversold territory for the past two days in a row as the stock begins to sell-off in earnest after rallying to new, 52-week highs in late January.
Kla-Tencor has a rating of 8 out of 10, putting the stock in our “consider buying” category for traders looking to buy short-term weakness in bull markets.
Even more oversold are shares of Novellus Systems (NASDAQ: NVLS). Down two days in a row and barely breaking even on Monday, NVLS has finished in or near oversold territory for the past two sessions and has a “consider buying” rating of 9 out of 10. Novellus Systems is set to open Tuesday with a positive edge of just under 1% in the short-term.
Market prognosticators will determine whether or not the fact that the Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF has finished near oversold territory for the past two days while the Technology Select Sector SPDRS ETF closed in overbought territory for eight out of the past nine means that the broader technology sector is headed for lower prices. But at the same time, there already may be a few markets in technology where prices have been coming down and potentially creating significant, short-term bargains for more active investors.
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David Penn is Editor in Chief of TradingMarkets.com