A Little Perspective
While I was sifting through the Internet this
weekend, I came across a rather offensive comment about me as it
related to my column here at TM. The comment alluded to the fact that my column
has not had much to say for the last couple of weeks. This person’s exact words
were:
“His column every day: Nothing
happening. Didn’t do much. Whatever. That really helps.”
With all due respect, sir/madam, that may be true recently, but not every
day. I guess you were not paying attention when I was talking about gold stocks
at the beginning of the year, getting long semis a few weeks back, and
naturally, some of the bad calls I have made as well, or the technical levels
for the S&P and Nasdaq futures that I put in my column each day which myself and
many readers find incredibly helpful.
Let’s put things in perspective, shall we. If you believe that the market
since 10/15 has been a walk in the park, great. All the more power to you. Many
of my colleagues who have been daytrading for several years are basically saying
the complete opposite. If I call them on any given day recently, they have
either gone home or are sitting on their hands. So, if the market is not there,
why trade? Capital preservation is rule number one as a trader. I believe that
the best analogy for a trader is a professional blackjack player, unless the
deck count is high, they bet the minimum. Given that professional traders have
that same “edge,” it makes no sense to play when the edge is not present. More
importantly, why should I come in here each day and make up stories about how I
nailed every high and low print, and if you didn’t, tell you that you are a
lousy trader. Perhaps I do not have the newest copy of the “Trader’s Rule
Book,” but the edition I own does not have a rule which states that you must
trade like your life depended on it each day.
Part of my role is to educate. It helps newer traders when I am frank and let
them know how it really is. I have worked with a few mentors over the last few
months who were relieved to come in and see that I was not some larger-than-life
trader who magically knew when to buy in advance of EVERY large move. For them
that was the most important part of the program.
In two months I will be embarking on my tenth year as a professional trader,
so to put all this in perspective, if I were to be this all-knowing, busy every
day trader that you think I should be and write like, I would have been blown
out years ago. Fortunately, I am a realist, and that is why I am still trading
today. Hell, I do not care if you do not like my column. I can’t please
everyone, but please don’t make false statements. No hard feelings.
Turning to today’s action, it appears as though the market is once again
poised to break out of this abysmal trading range. The
Microsoft
(
MSFT |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
news on Friday may very well be the catalyst. However, last Monday
offered up the same potential, only to fail. As of Sunday night, the S&P futures
are trading at 908. Immediate resistance levels are seen on the charts below,
keep an eye on them for potential trade opportunities:
With the FOMC meeting taking place on Wednesday, do not be surprised if
institutions and traders square positions early on causing the market to trade
pretty quiet for the remainder of the session. However, if the S&Ps manage to
hold on to the 900 level at the conclusion of the morning session, the rally may
just feed on itself.
In terms of some good HVT stocks keep an
eye on these levels for trade opportunities:
(
MMM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)Â –Â $130.63.
(
BAC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)Â –Â a move above 70.60 would
break it out a tight trading range on the hourly chart.
(
MSFT |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) —Â Naturally, with all the
favorable news, the stock may trade somewhat non-technically, nonetheless, keep
an eye out for $56.07.
Key Technical
Numbers (futures):
S&Ps |
Nasdaq |
| *916* | 1062.50 |
| 906 | 1056 |
| 901 | *1047.50* |
| 895 | 1038 |
| 890 | *1022* |
| 885 | 1005 |
| 879 | 996 |
| *868-72* | 988 |
* indicates a level that is more significant
As always, feel free to send me your comments and
questions. See you in TradersWire.