A Lot of Sectors Are Still In Trouble
Greetings from Maui…unfortunately, coming back to the real world on
Saturday. Had a blast but needed to let you know a few things about travel.
Delta Airlines…is a horror show.. Not only was our connecting flight to
Honolulu missed because of a mechanical problem , on our next flight, they lost
our luggage. We ended up staying in L.A. overnight. Delta refused to pay for the
hotel in L.A. because I booked it on my own as no one told us we were entitled
to a free room. But that’s ok. They finally found the luggage. Not so fast! On
the flight out of L.A., Delta again lost our luggage into Honolulu. After
sitting on a line for 2 hours, we gave all our info…to no avail. We then
called Delta and sat on hold for 45 minutes…before someone told us the bags
will arrive the next morning. Well…finally got the bags on our third day…and
now, we fly out on Delta coming home. I hope no one at Delta reads this….but
then again, they should. I can’t begin to tell you how big the line was for lost
luggage.
If you are on the Big Island and have kids, go to the Hilton Waikoloa. It is
a kid’s paradise. If you are on Maui and have kids, go to the Grand Wailea
Hotel. You can do no wrong at these places…but I must say the $15 burgers at
the Grand Wailea were scrumptious.
If you go to Kauai, it is a must to take a helicopter around the island. You
must also take a boat to the Na Pali coast. I recommend taking one from the
North shore…a much better trip.
Other thoughts:
Hey John Edwards…you are right. There isn’t any war on terror. Those
wonderful doctors in England were not trying to kill and destroy the innocent.
Just a figment of our imagination.
Speaking of the DEMS, I have given them every chance to do what the
Republicans didn’t do…and that is to govern. Nope…so far…they wanted the
Fairness Doctrine restated which mandates speech…they have changed rules and
procedures to raise your taxes more easily…they have done nothing about
earmarks…they have gone the other way with ethics reform as we have found out
people like Pelosi and Reid are up to their necks in questionable ethics…and
they are into the daily investigation du jour on the Bush administration. In
other words, everything they said they would do, they haven’t…and everything
they said they wouldn’t do, they have.
Three weeks ago, you saw me on “Cavuto On Business” on the ever-popular Fox
News Channel’s Business Block. I predicted that John McCain would be the first
major casualty of the presidential election. After firing 50 campaign staffers
and showing very little cash, I now call it the chalk bet.
And just to be fair, what has the Republican party done lately? Oh
yes…NOTHING!
Business time:
People are going to jail…or maybe not…why….because no one is watching.
KOMAG was bought out. Did you see the 4 days leading up to the buyout? Massive
buying on heavy volume…in a dead stock…but no one saying anything. Did you
see the action on HILTON…the day before the buyout? Huge volume move on a
pre-holiday trading day…but no one says anything.
Did you see the Bear Stearns bailout…by Bear Stearns? First off, where are
the ratings services with all these bonds that are not priced? Oh yes…failing
to do their job because if they lowered ratings, there would be a mini-meltdown
or more. This is more laughable activity by the ones who should be protective?
Where is the SEC? Where are the Feds? How can there be billions and billions of
dollars of mortgage-type bonds literally unpriced? Why do the cops wait until a
huge blow-up has already happened? I am afraid we have only seen the first of
the blow-ups…and this occurred only on a blip to the upside in rates. What if
rates really get out of hand?
We got the 4th of July ramp. What else is new? It started at 340 pm last
Friday with the market sinking like a stone. The usual sprinkling of pixie dust
followed. Today, I talk about what is and what is not working.
I am still bearish on anything INTEREST-RATE sensitive. Why? I am still
bearish on BONDS. The chart of the BOND is plain gross. INTEREST-RATE SENSITIVE
areas I am bearish on are HOUSING, UTILITIES, REITS, REGIONAL BANKS, S&LS most
FINANCIALS, LENDERS and most BROKERS.
I am also in the bearish camp on INSURANCE stocks, GOLD/SILVER, COAL, DRUGS,
BIOTECH, RESTAURANTS, misc. RETAIL and misc. TRANSPORTS.
I was bearish on the HOTELS…but the HILTON buyout took care of that as
everything up in sympathy. Amazingly, I am no longer bearish on the
AIRLINES…as many stocks are turning the corner. Lastly, I am more wary of the
OILS here as a few too many names have broken the 50 day average…but
overall…still in decent shape.
What I do love here is that major indices have held support…the NASDAQ and
NDX are breaking out…and leading growth names are a popping…many of the
names I have mentioned to you in the past…names like AAPL, BIDU, GOOG, FWLT,
AMZN, RIMM, CROX, MA, FFIV and others. I have been trained to pay attention to
these leading names…because of they continue to do well, markets usually hold
up.
I love the set-ups in many of the SEMIS…though I question the fundamentals.
But the set-ups are there. Even the mighty puke…INTEL…is moving out of a one
year base.
I continue to get too many bearish emails every time the market has a down
day. I call them the QIDers…because all they want to buy is the QID…which is
the double inverse ETF of the NASDAQ 100. This should give comfort to those who
own the other side.
One needs to just recognize here that there are still a lot of sectors in
trouble. If you own them, in spite of the market, you are losing some bucks. It
is “split-tape city out there right now…so dont think you can throw darts. I
do believe and reiterate it may be NASDAQ-time here…even though the NASDAQ
supposedly underperforms the summer months. I would be paying attention to those
names mentioned as well as others that break out of bases and land on the new
high list.