ADP Payrolls: Expecting Strong Numbers

The Event:

At 8:15 AM on Wednesday, March 3rd Automatic Data Processing (ADP) releases their non-farm payroll numbers.


This event is thought of as a precursor to the actual NFP release 2 days later. ADP provides payroll services for many large corporations in the USA, therefore has an edge in predicting the actual figure. This release started in 2006 and the calculation methodology was last changed in December, 2008 to better reflect the expected government numbers.

Trader Take:

No question this figure is going to show improvement. However, the expected number of 40k seems to be overly optimistic to me. That is a 60k surge over last months reading of negative 20k. I will be surprised if the estimate is hit or exceeded. However, traders need to pay keen attention to this release as it should be a precursor to Friday’s NFP figure.

David Goodboy is Vice President of Business Development for a New York City based multi-strategy fund.

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