Afternoon US Dollar wrap-up

The USD continued to advance
against the major pairs today after starting the overnight session a bit
firmer in Asia
; most of the advance coming from a disappointing
German ZEW sentiment index released during European trade. With the lack of
fresh news from the US side of the Atlantic, traders have focused on non-US
fundamentals for clues to near-term USD direction. With the positive Eurozone
fundamentals seen in recent weeks, analysts forecast a solid ZEW reading but
today’s reading was a very poor -5.6, sharply lower than the median forecast
of +12.2 suggesting that the Eurozone growth potential is moderating. EURO
responded by selling off hard from the recent resistance area above 1.2900
area seen in early trade yesterday and continued to weaken all day into the
close of New York trade.

Traders note that stops were elected at several layers as
expected but aggressive selling emerged as the pair moved through support
rumored at 1.2840 area. On the bid was US names and model/momentum funds
around the 1.2840 area but those longs were likely liquidated once the rate
fell through the 1.2800 handle shortly before the close of European trade. The
EURO remained under pressure all day and likely will have seen a drop in O/I
in futures as long-liquidation may have been the bulk of the selling pressure
today. Tracking EURO lower was the GBP, falling through support at 1.8930 area
and triggering stops as well to eventually post a new low for the week at the
1.8856 area; traders note that cable has done some technical damage to the
bullish position so more follow-through is expected the next 24 hours.

USD/JPY rallied through resistance as well, triggering
close-in stops at the 116.40 area and again at 116.60 area before encountering
offers at the 116.80 area to cap the move. Exporters and option defense noted
at the highs suggesting that someone does not want to see a 117.00 print
anytime soon but buyers were thick under the market with good buying expected
on any dip back to the low 116.00 handle. In my view, the USD is continuing a
correction from the highs that started in the GBP three weeks ago and gaining
momentum. Look for lower prices to end the week. Aggressive traders can sell
rallies in the majors as the sizable long position in Futures has a long way
to go before support I think. Overnight expect the USD to consolidate these
gains and remain very two-sided.


R3: 1.2950

R2: 1.2910

R1: 1.2860/80

Current Price : 1.2821

S1: 1.2800

S2: 1.2770/80

S3: 1.2730

Pair falling back on long liquidation pressure and failure
at the recent high. Stops rumored to be building at the 1.2780 area and below,
close under 1.2770 area sets up a test of the 100 bar MA at 1.2730 area; trend
line support also at 1.2700 area. Look for solid two-way trade overnight with
a heavy tone as traders look for follow-through selling overnight. Strong
offers likely on a rally back to 1.2860.


R3: 8720

R2: 8700

R1: 8640/50

Current Price : 8608

S1: 8590

S2: 8550

S3: ?

Pair finding near-term support at 8600 area, stops rumored
to be sub 8590 area, bottom picking likely on approach to 8550 area to form a
double bottom. Upside limited to previous offers at 8700 and 50 bar MA at 8720
area, look for continued liquidation pressures should pair stall under 8600
area. Massive short-covering rally likely should market have a quiet day ahead
of US data.

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