Another Non Event? Philly Fed Survey

The Event:

At 10:00 AM EST, on Thursday, March 18th, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve releases its survey of manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve district. The survey posses questions concerning business conditions and general sentiment among the recipients.


Conducted every year since 1968, the Philly Fed Survey is closely watched by Forex traders as a predictive precursor to the ISM manufacturing number. The number is based on a scale with zero being the centerline point. Numbers above zero are considered positive in terms of growth, while those below zero are negative. The results are the difference between the percentage of positive and negative scores.

Trader Take:

This number has been fairly steady since it broke positive in September, 2009. The USD is currently fighting hard to maintain its momentum against the EUR. However, the Euro has been winning over the last several days. The US no interest rate increase stance is keeping the Greenback bulls at bay while the Euro is gaining ground presently. Things should stay steady with this release as the forecast number is 17.6, the same as last month. However, as in all things Forex, be ready for anything!

David Goodboy is Vice President of Business Development for a New York City based multi-strategy fund.

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