Baghdad Deal Sends Oil Barrelling

Stalled at contract
highs, crude oil
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is breaking down from the $36 a barrel threshold on news that the
United Nations will extend a pact with Iraq to continue exports of oil. The lap
lower in the January contract leaves a mini-island top reversal formation and is
also conforming with the contract’s 6/100 Low Volatility
reading, a signal that oil could make a larger-than-expected move. Unleaded gasoline
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is also a 6/100 Low Volatility setup and is off from its high following Monday’s
weak close that left a bearish tail. 

Warm weather is also
having a negative impact on the energy complex, bringing both
heating oil
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 and natural gas
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off contract highs. The
fact that the energies are able to decline on bullish news–an oil worker’s
strike in OPEC-member Nigeria– is also a sign that prices could continue to
descent. 

March sugar
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is making good on its Turtle Soup Plus One
Sell
. The recent Commitment
of Trader’s
report showed an unusually high number of small speculators
long, a bearish setup. Sugar is off .28 at 9.38.

Also in the Turtle Soup sell department,
December dollar index futures
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are following through on Monday’s
large-range engulfing bar down on the weakest durable goods orders report in
three months. The decline in the dollar Tuesday comes despite weak economic
figures out from Germany, suggesting more downside ahead for the buck. 

Going the other way,
soybean oil
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is making good on its Turtle Soup Plus One Buy
setup after plunging to a multi-month low on Monday.