Be Aware Of Any New June Money Being Put To Work
The early month-end market action took the
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SPY |
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PowerRating) down from Friday’s 120.05 close to 119.47 on the 11:10 a.m. ET bar.
Program activity subsided and the SPY worked its way back to 120.05 on very
light volume. Sell programs hit at 3:25 p.m., taking the SPY to a new intraday
low of 119.39 before closing at 119.48, right at the .618 119.54 zone. The SPX
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$SPX.X |
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PowerRating) closed at 1191.50, -0.6%, losing 5.4 points on the program
selling in the last half-hour before closing at 1191.50. The average closing
price for the past six days is 1194.30 vs. the 1193.60 .618 retracement level to
the 1229.11 rally high from the 04/20/05 1136.15 low. All of the other major
indices have also been churning around their .618 retracement zones. The Dow
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$INDU |
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PowerRating) was -0.7% yesterday to 10,467, while both the Nasdaq
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$COMPQ |
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PowerRating), 2068, and
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PowerRating), 38.08, were -0.3%. NYSE volume was 1.48
billion shares with a volume ratio of 40 and breadth neutral at +80, which
highlights the narrow end-of-month reallocation programs. The sectors were all
red, in line with the SPX, except the XBD, which was +0.8%. The highlight was
the long bond’s
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TLT |
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PowerRating) +1.2% move. The XLU (utilities SPDR) closed unchanged
at 30.03 and is bumping up against the high end of a nine-week trading range
which has a high close of 30.07.
The QQQQ,
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SMH |
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PowerRating) and Nasdaq all finished the
month extended to their +2.0 three-month standard deviation bands. The spread
for the QQQQ between the +2.0 and +3.0 band is 38.25 – 39.25, for the SMH it is
34.60 – 36, and the Nasdaq 2075 – 2125. The SPY closed at 119.48 and the spread
is 120.50 – 123, while the
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DIA |
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PowerRating), which has lagged as expected, closed at
104.63 with the .618 level up at 106 and the spread of the +2.0 and +3.0 bands
from 107 – 109.50.
Starting today we must be aware of any new June
money put to work the next few days which would push the extended levels even
higher, and then the prospect for a quick sharp downside air pocket is very
high, after which, the Generals will have a high incentive to mark-up their
major holdings into the six-month June-ending report card. I would imagine last
year’s 12/31/04 close of 1211.92 is a magnet.
Have a good trading day,
Kevin Haggerty
P.S. I will be
referring to some charts here:
www.thechartstore.com in the future.