Beans Getting Crushed
Soybeans are breaking down and leaving an island top
formation. A lot of the volatility in grains has been on speculation over the
weather during a critical growing phase. Take note that the Pre-Opening
Futures Outlook pointed out the, “short-term weather still looks
bearish” and that although “the outlook for a bumper crop is probably
still out of the question, improving crop conditions are possible over the next
week which should push end-user buyers to the sidelines.” August beans
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Bellies
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straight day due to lower marketings and weather.
In a potential changing of the guard on the Momentum-5
List, the decline in grains is making way for today’s rash of
New 10-Day Highs List contracts to potentially assert themselves:
Japanese yen
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euro FX futures
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have demonstrated nascent signs of momentum. And Swiss francs
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are the Momentum-5
List leader. The surest play here is to short dollars as all of the contracts
are priced vs. the dollar and are demonstrating collective momentum. One caveat.
Pounds here could diverge from the group due to the increased likelihood the Brits
will join the single-currency euro, taking down the value of the pound against
both the euro and dollar.
Notice that the Momentum
in debt — in September T-bonds
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10-year notes
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of slower-than-expected economic recovery (pointed out by Greenspan this week)
and lower interest rates hurts the dollar.