Big swings are possible today
Monday’s session was drifty… to the
downside. An early strong gap-up open fizzled out two hours after the bell,
sliding downward a tad before bouncing in the afternoon to close nearly
unchanged from Friday’s end result. A day ahead of the Fed, and one that didn’t
really accomplish much more than a child pushing the last bits of jell-o around
on their dinner plate.
ES (+$50 per index point)
S&P 500 opened right near Friday highs, limped
around there for a bit and then started stabbing lower highs & lows near 11:00am
~ 11:30am EST. An afternoon lift off the lows took price action right back to
its 1270 magnet, where they look to begin the day at this time.
ER (+$100 per index point)
Russell 2000 chopped its way thru a 3pt range
for two hours, slid below the daily pivot point and lifted back up towards 695
to close. Another day of sideways indecision and scalper’s plays up or down.
This Session:
ES (+$50 per index point)
S&P has posted three consecutive doji days of
indecision. Unless this one gets ramped or slammed past 2:15pm EST, we will see
a fourth day accordingly. 1260 is a clear level of support, with 1240s a
possible downside target and 1250ish SPX potential magnet for Thursday’s closing
bell. Cessation of trading for Dec 05 index option contracts that day (settled
on Friday’s averaged open) may be the targeted “pin” for this expiry cycle.
Whatever premium difference exists between the cash market 1250 and ES06
contract could be futures market magnet for week’s end.
ER (+$100 per index point)
Russell 2000 is holding higher ground than the
ES on a relative comparison, but 682 and even 670 are downside targets that will
come into play in recent sideways action does not break upward soon.
Summation
FOMC event day: possibly one directional move in the morning,
anything from sideways churn to big directional swings are possible into the
closing bell. There is no possible way to tell which it may be, so my overall
plan is to trade any clear signal for one potential move this morning, then go
with the flow past news release this afternoon. Post-FOMC Wednesday sessions
have been very good to trade more often than not in this lengthy rate hike
cycle, so we’ll keep that in mind for tomorrow!
Trade To Win
Austin P
(Weekend Outlook trend-view section…
open access)
Austin Passamonte is a full-time
professional trader who specializes in E-mini stock index futures, equity
options and commodity markets.
Mr. Passamonte’s trading approach uses proprietary chart patterns found on an
intraday basis. Austin trades privately in the Finger Lakes region of New York.