Bond Prices Sent A Signal Today…

March corn has moved to new contract lows in each
of the past 3 trading session and December corn came within 1 cent of matching
the lowest price since the May 2002 lows for nearby futures at 191 1/2. The news
of increased export activity from China due to high freight charges to Asia
customers for US corn combined with hefty deliveries helped to pressure the
market early in the session. Traders also remained concerned with increased
competition for corn on the world market due to higher than expected supply of
feedwheat from Canada and Eastern Europe. Deliveries for first notice day today
for December corn came in at 1779 lots from trade expectations which were mostly
near 500-1500 lots. Registrations with the CBOT jumped to 2,442 lots from 882
late Monday. The corn harvest is 95% complete from 92% last week. Traders remain
nervous that the Asian rust spread across the US could cause corn acreage to
jump next year and this fear was also seen as a bearish development. Resistance
for March Corn comes in at the 205 1/2 and 207 1/4 with 202 3/4 and 200 1/2 as
next support.

Technical Outlook

CORN (MAR) 12/01/2004: The market broke to a new
contract low. Momentum studies are declining, but have fallen to oversold
levels. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the
9-day moving average. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was
under the swing pivot. The next downside objective is 202 1/4. The 9-day RSI
under 30 indicates the market is approaching oversold levels. The next area of
resistance is around 204 3/4 and 206, while 1st support hits today at 202 3/4
and below there at 202 1/4.

 

SOY COMPLEX RECAP

11/30/2004

January Soybeans finished down 4 3/4 at 534 3/4,
5 3/4 off the high and 2 1/4 up from the low. March Soybeans closed down 4 3/4
at 536. This was 1 3/4 up from the low and 5 off the high.

January Soymeal closed down 2.7 at 154.2. This
was 0.2 up from the low and 2.3 off the high.

January Soybean Oil finished up 0.35 at 20.62,
0.07 off the high and 0.44 up from the low.

The market continued to push lower on the session
into the close in spite of news that soybean rust was found in Missouri. Back to
back record crops in the US this fall and Brazil in early 2005 has the trade
nervous over excess supply. Record high freight rates have discouraged China
buying this week and has cash dealers talking about possible China sell-backs of
previously booked US soybeans. South Korea bought 52,500 tons of US soybeans
overnight and Taiwan is tendering for 40,000-60,000 tons of US soybeans. Meal
deliveries were 240 lots vs. trade expectations of 50-150. If US producers plant
2 million less acres next year (due to Asia rust costs and cheap prices) and
yield drops 6% from this year to 40 bu/acre, ending stocks would still come in
above 535 million bushels as compared with 112 million for the 03/04 season. If
yield drops 12%, then stocks would still be burdensome at 357 million bushels.
If planted acreage drops 2 million acres but yield matches this year, ending
stocks would come in at 724 million bushels which would be a record high and
represent over 25% of the usage. The point of the exercise (demand numbers left
unchanged) is to show that it will take more than slightly lower yields and
slightly lower acreage to eat through the enormous stocks expected from this
season’s bumper crop. Resistance for January soybeans comes in at 540 and 544
with 532 1/4 and 525 1/4 as next support levels.

Technical Outlook

BEANS (JAN) 12/01/2004: Momentum studies trending
lower at mid-range could accelerate a price break if support levels are broken.
The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for
trend. The market setup is somewhat negative with the close under the 1st swing
support. The next downside target is 527 3/4. The next area of resistance is
around 538 3/4 and 543 1/2, while 1st support hits today at 530 3/4 and below
there at 527 3/4.

MEAL (JAN) 12/01/2004: The major trend has turned
down with the cross over back below the 40-day moving average. Momentum studies
trending lower at mid-range could accelerate a price break if support levels are
broken. The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term
indicator for trend. The gap down on the day session chart is bearish with more
selling pressure possible today. The defensive setup, with the close under the
2nd swing support, could cause some early weakness. The next downside objective
is now at 153.5. The next area of resistance is around 156.9 and 158.8, while
1st support hits today at 154.3 and below there at 153.5.

BEANOIL (JAN) 12/01/2004: Negative momentum
studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. The
market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day
moving average. It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the
pivot swing number. The next downside objective is now at 20.14. The next area
of resistance is around 20.94 and 21.11, while 1st support hits today at 20.46
and below there at 20.14.

 

WHEAT MARKET RECAP

11/30/2004

December Wheat finished up 2 3/4 at 289 3/4, 2 1/4 off the
high and 2 1/4 up from the low. March Wheat closed up 3/4 at 301 1/4. This was 1
3/4 up from the low and 2 1/4 off the high.

The market inched higher into the close after
choppy, two-sided trade with an inside trading day. Talk of the oversold
condition of the market basis traditional technical indicators and light
deliveries against the December contract supported light speculative buying
early in the session. Deliveries for first notice day today came in at 612 lots
as compared with trade expectations at 500-1500 contracts. The market also found
support from news that Australia officials revised their 2004/2005 wheat
production forecast to 20.2 million tonnes from 22.3 projected in September and
24.92 million tons last year. South Korea is tendering for 21,500 tons of US
wheat. Resistance for March wheat comes in at the 308 and 311 with 298 and 295
as next support.

Technical Outlook

WHEAT (MAR) 12/01/2004: Daily stochastics are
trending lower but have declined into oversold territory. A negative signal for
trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average. With the
close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish
posture. The next downside objective is now at 297 1/2. The market is
approaching oversold levels on an RSI reading under 30. The next area of
resistance is around 303 1/4 and 305 1/4, while 1st support hits today at 299
1/4 and below there at 297 1/2.

 

LIVE CATTLE RECAP

11/30/2004

February Live Cattle closed down 0.57 at 89.55.
This was 0.65 up from the low and 0.70 off the high.

January Feeder Cattle finished down 0.10 at
103.95, 1.05 off the high and 0.40 up from the low.

The market closed sharply lower on the session
but managed to recover 70 points off of the lows into the close due to higher
beef prices. The reported suspected case of mad cow in Japan could change the
outlook for resuming beef exports to Japan and helped trigger active selling
from speculators. In addition, Bush is meeting with the Canadian Prime Minister
with the Canadian cattle ban thought to be one of the main topics. A USDA plan
to allow Canadian cattle across the border is currently being reviewed by the
Office of Management and Budget and traders fear that increased imports of
Canadian cattle in early 2005 could depress prices. Boxed-beef cut-out values
were up $3.00 at mid-session to $144.88 as compared with $137.63 last week at
this time. The surge in beef prices could help support packer margins and allow
packers to pay higher in the cash market this week. Slaughter came in at 123,000
head as compared with trade expectations at 120,000-124,000 head.

Technical Outlook

CATTLE (FEB) 12/01/2004: Rising stochastics at
overbought levels warrant some caution for bulls. The market’s close above the
9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The outside
day down is a negative signal. The swing indicator gave a moderately negative
reading with the close below the 1st support number. The near-term upside target
is at 90.900. The next area of resistance is around 90.200 and 90.900, while 1st
support hits today at 88.900 and below there at 88.220.

 

LEAN HOGS RECAP

11/30/2004

February Lean Hogs closed up 1.05 at 77.15. This
was 0.85 up from the low and 0.55 off the high.

February Pork Bellies finished up 0.15 at 101.85,
1.00 off the high and 0.55 up from the low.

February hogs have not closed lower for 8
sessions in a row and roared to new contract highs for the 4th session in a row.
Strength in the cash market and a discount of futures to the cash market helped
support the solid gains. The COT report with options on Monday night showed
small speculators holding a record net short position and short-covering from
this group has provided the foundation for the recent strength. Nearby futures
are back up to the highest level since August. Packer demand is strong to move
as many hogs through the pipeline as possible as export demand remains firm and
pork cut-out values have been on the rise. Cash hogs traded mostly $1.00 higher
at most locations. The CME 2-Day Lean Index for the period ending November 26th
was reported at 77.38, down $.42 from the previous session and down from 78.80
last week at this time. The index is likely to bounce in the next few days after
recent cash strength. News of a possible mad-cow case in Japan with a young
animal has beef exporters concerned over the outlook for a resumption of beef
trade with Japan which is a factor which seems to support the idea of continued
strong pork exports for now. Slaughter came in at 402,000 head as compared with
trade expectations at 395,000-404,000 head.

Technical Outlook

HOGS (FEB) 12/01/2004: The market rallied to a
new contract high. Rising stochastics at overbought levels warrant some caution
for bulls. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the
9-bar moving average. The gap upmove on the day session chart is a bullish
indicator for trend. There could be more upside follow through since the market
closed above the 2nd swing resistance. The next upside target is 78.470. The
9-day RSI over 70 indicates the market is approaching overbought levels. The
next area of resistance is around 77.850 and 78.470, while 1st support hits
today at 76.470 and below there at 75.700.

 

COCOA MARKET RECAP

11/30/2004

March Cocoa finished up 51 at 1651, 9 off the
high and 34 up from the low.

The cocoa market surprised many in the trade with
a strong rally on Tuesday. Apparently the trade was short covering into the end
of the month but with the latest COT report showing a net spec and fund long we
doubt that the market has too much in the way of short covering capacity left in
place after the action Tuesday. With talk that Ivory Coast arrivals were down
and poor quality reports from Ghana the market seemed to have other minor
reasons to rally. In the end we have to think that low volume activity allowed
the market a bigger rise than would ordinarily have been seen.

Technical Outlook

COCOA (MAR) 12/01/2004: Negative momentum studies
in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. A positive signal
for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. Follow
through buying looks likely if the market can hold yesterday’s gap on the day
session chart. There could be more upside follow through since the market closed
above the 2nd swing resistance. The next downside target is 1602. The next area
of resistance is around 1672 and 1687, while 1st support hits today at 1630 and
below there at 1602.

 

COFFEE MARKET RECAP

11/30/2004

March Coffee closed down 0.40 at 97.45. This was
2.35 up from the low and 2.55 off the high.

March coffee moved to a new contract high and
managed to hit psychological resistance at 100.00 before closing 40 lower on the
session and down 255 points from the highs of the day. Long liquidation selling
entered the market after the gap higher opening and the selling trend built up
momentum during the session. The overbought condition of the market triggered
the selling with the COT report with options showing a record high net long
position by the funds. Traditional technical indicators are in an overbought
condition as well after the 1600 point surge since November 15th. The Brazil
government first official production forecast for the 2005/2006 crop will be
issued after the New York market closes on December 10th.

Technical Outlook

COFFEE (MAR) 12/01/2004: A new contract high was
made on the rally. Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory which
will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market’s close above the
9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The
downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. The
close over the pivot swing is a somewhat positive setup. The near-term upside
target is at 102.35. The 9-day RSI over 70 indicates the market is approaching
overbought levels. The next area of resistance is around 99.85 and 102.35, while
1st support hits today at 95.05 and below there at 92.65.

 

SUGAR MARKET RECAP

11/30/2004

March Sugar closed down 0.05 at 8.84. This was
0.04 up from the low and 0.08 off the high.

March sugar closed 5 lower in choppy, two-sided
trade as speculative long liquidation selling has helped pressure the market
this week after opening the week at the highest level since October 25th.
Traders continue to expect to see increased cash business but high freight rates
have kept buyers at bay and political instability in the Russia/Ukraine region
may have also caused buyers to hold off for now. Iran is tendering for 40,000
tons of raw sugar which helped provide some support. Weakness in London before
the US open helped keep speculators in a long liquidation mode after the COT
report with options this week showed speculators holding a net long position of
126,000 contracts.

Technical Outlook

SUGAR (MAR) 12/01/2004: Daily stochastics have
risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it
occurs. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term
indicator for trend. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was
lower than the pivot swing number. The next upside objective is 8.96. The next
area of resistance is around 8.89 and 8.96, while 1st support hits today at 8.78
and below there at 8.73.

 

COTTON MARKET RECAP

11/30/2004

March Cotton finished up 0.81 at 44.78, 0.02 off
the high and 1.03 up from the low.

March cotton closed 81 higher on the session and
moved to the highest level since November 3rd finding support from solid export
sales in the past week and from the slow pace of harvest from Texas. In
addition, the COT report with options showed funds holding a hefty net short
position so the recent, more positive technical action has attracted fund
short-covering. The massive US and world cotton production to absorb and news of
a higher Australia crop has failed to attract new selling interest recently. As
of Sunday, the Texas crop was just 46% harvested as compared with 74% as the
5-year average for this time of the year.

Technical Outlook

COTTON (MAR) 12/01/2004: A positive indicator was
given with the upside crossover of the 9 & 18 bar moving average. Studies are
showing positive momentum but are now in overbought territory, so some caution
is warranted. The market’s short-term trend is positive on the close above the
9-day moving average. Market positioning is positive with the close over the 1st
swing resistance. The next upside objective is 45.57. The next area of
resistance is around 45.30 and 45.57, while 1st support hits today at 44.26 and
below there at 43.48.