Breaking Down the Current Market Action
Gary Kaltbaum is an investment
advisor with over 18 years experience, and a Fox News Channel Business
Contributor. Gary is the author of
The Investors Edge. Mr. Kaltbaum is also the
host of the nationally syndicated radio show “Investors Edge” on over 50 radio
stations. Gary is also editor and publisher of “Gary Kaltbaum’s Trendwatch”…a
weekly and monthly technical analysis research report for the institutional
investor. If you would like a free trial to Gary’s Daily Market Alerts
click here or call
888.484.8220 ext. 1.
Lots to go over both inside and outside the market.
Nothing has changed in the market. Bullish areas remain GOLD/SILVER,
AGRICULTURE, BEVERAGES, FERTILIZERS, TOBACCO, UTILITIES, HMOS, HOUSEHOLD
PRODUCTS, DRUGS…and that’s about it. As I have said, these areas are either
inflationary or recession resistant. Is it any wonder the overall market is in
trouble? This remains a classic bear cycle in both the action in the market and
reaction of the pundits. Short-term aside, which remains oversold, 75-80% of
stocks are in a bear market, 95% of the sectors I follow are in a bear market
and most world markets are going along for the ride. This is not a garden
variety correction whether or not major indices hit the 20% threshold. BUT…I
do have some things to say on a short-term basis.
On a short-term basis, there may be some light at the end of the tunnel.
SENTIMENT has become extremely bearish. Not only has everyone now said we are
headed to or in recession, but the most recent survey from the AAII shows over
58% bears and 19% bulls. We have not seen these kind of numbers since February
03. Keep in mind, things were bottoming then. Right now, that is not the case.
Also, I am now seeing spikes in the equity put/call ratio. These spikes last
occurred in late February, mid-August and the mid-November lows. Keep in mind,
sentiment tends to be a different animal in bear markets.
Monday is day 4 off the lows…so we are in an attempted rally here…and
will be looking for a follow-through day where a major index is up 1.5% or
higher on heavier volume. Of course, we will also need to see a plethora of
stocks breaking out of sound bases…which is nowhere to be found right now. But
a follow through could set the stage.
A few points to make:
SMALL CAP continues to lead down. As I have told you, SMALL CAPS have and
would continue to be the weak link. This has been going on since May of last
year. The RUSSELL and the SMALL CAP 600 almost reached the 20% number…where
then and only then, it would be called a bear market.
Pundits are just not getting it when it comes to the FINANCIALS. One of the
characteristics of a bear is that every time something rallies, it is called the
bottom. In the past few days, FINANCIALS have received a better bid. But this is
not out of strength, it is out of weakness. It is normal to bounce every now and
then in a brutal bear market. I suspect the FINANCIALS could bounce back into
the declining 50 day average just like they did into the 12/11 top.
RETAIL continues to crash. Yes…I said crash. When I called the top on a
technical basis in July, little did I know. As usual, we are only finding out
months later what the market knew back then…that the consumer is in deep
doo-doo. One great example is Mens Warehouse (MW). The stock had already been
trashed from $56 to $25 when they reported this week earnings would be down 60%
below estimates.
On several occasions, I have told you I expected a publicly traded
HOMEBUILDER or two to file bankruptcy. Put Standard Pacific(SPF) on your radar
as the stock is acting like a bankruptcy is not far away.
CITI is rumored to be taking another $24 billion loss. MERRILL is rumored to
be taking another $15 billion loss. What the heck is going on here? I have a few
problems. Isn’t there a law that says public companies are not supposed to sit
on major news that could impact stock prices? If this is all true, aren’t these
companies violating this law? My other question has to do with the upcoming
announcement that both comapnies are going to receive billions more in capital
from outside entities. Why don’t these companies just sell? They are already in
the midst of killing shareholder wealth. Why not just sell? Every time they
raise capital, they are diluting shareholders anyhow. And when will these
comapnies find an abacus that works? Their calculators are certainly not.
Countrypuke Financial playing the victim. Ok…Angelo Mozilo is playing the
victim. He states that they are victims of an imploding housing market. Who is
he trying to kid? About two years ago, yours truly was called by Countrypuke.
Their salesman told me I was nuts to keep my 4.75%-10 year fixed mortgage…and
that I should get into an interest only mortgage and pocket the difference every
month. When I told this blithering idiot that I could afford my mortgage and
that every time I made a payment, over 75% of my payment went to equity, he told
me I had no idea what I was doing. I invited this wonderful human being to sell
me on his mortgage live on my radio show…for all of my audience to hear. I
also told him I would email the Attorney Gneeral of Florida to listen to the
show. Mr. Countrypuke never called me back. Now…I consider myself somewhat of
a smart guy when it comes to loans. I can only imagine what they did to the
masses. Angelo Mozilo benefitted with these crappy loans when prices were headed
up. Greedy borrowers were able to make all kinds of money WITH NO MONEY
DOWN…as long as prices kept going up. None could fathom that things could
change. There was only one outcome once prices headed down…and that was
disaster…for both the slimy lenders and the greedy borrowers. Admittedly, many
borrowers were unsophisticated…and admittedly, Countrypuke was not alone.
I have stated that the next big bull market was going to be in legal fees for
all the bad guys. I am letting you know I am now expecting indictments in the
future. Yes…indictments. For what? Probably a long list. I am just starting to
hear rumblings that many states are now on the case and for lack of a better
word, are pissed at what has happened. I was thinking for a while that the
culprits would be let off the hook…that the “I had no idea how bad things
would get” defense would be enough. Not any more. This is going to get fun.
Lastly, I am tired of hearing from Greenspan et al that there was nothing
they could do about what we are now seeing as a financial disaster. Here are a
few tidbits I have found out.
Federal Reserve Governor Edward Gramlich warned Greenspan many years ago that
lenders were getting out of hand…and that it was starting to feed on itself.
He asked Greenspan to investigate. Nothing happened.
In 2001, Treasury official Sheila Bair tried to get outside monitors to check
on lenders’ compliance with loans. Nothing done!
John Gamboa and Rober Gnaizda of the Greenlining Institute warned the Fed in
2004 about what was occurring. They met with Uncle Al. They have been quoted as
saying that “he just wasn’t interested.”
Greenspan was warned on many fronts…from many people. Nothing done. What
did we get from Uncle Al? This quote that gives you a clear understanding of the
buffoonery.
“Innovation has brought about a multitude of new products, such as sub-prime
loans and niche credit programs for immigrants. . . . With these advances in
technology, lenders have taken advantage of credit-scoring models and other
techniques for efficiently extending credit to a broader spectrum of consumers.
. . Where once more-marginal applicants would simply have been denied credit,
lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual
applicants and to price that risk appropriately. These improvements have led to
rapid growth in sub-prime mortgage lending . . . fostering constructive
innovation that is both responsive to market demand and beneficial to
consumers.”
I can go on and on about the missteps that were made. I am in hopes that
previous mistakes are not compounded by the Fed and the regulators that missed
the boat in the first place.
Gary Kaltbaum