British Pound crosses look to rebound


GBPJPY— The slow, choppy decline from the 6/19 high at 213.69 to 209.53 has been followed by an impulsive move higher to 212.38 in trading today. Continued strength would test resistance from the 7/5 high at 212.46 as well as the 78.6% fibo of 213.70-209.54 at 212.78. The hourly does indicate slowing upside momentum with bearish divergence among price and oscillators — suggesting a potential reversal at one of the mentioned resistance levels.


GBPCHF — From last week — “We are now at the bottom of year long range so a bounce is expected. Resistance is at fibo retracements of the 2.2878-2.2519 decline at 2.2656, 2.2698, and 2.2741.” True to form, GBP/CHF has bounced from the 2.2519 low and made its high yesterday at 2.2692 as range trading continues. There is still more room to the upside but the correction of the decline to 2.2519 is just that — a correction. A break below today’s 2.2581 low exposes the 7/3 low at 2.2519. As we see on the weekly chart (below), GBP/CHF may be on the cusp of a major breakout to the downside.


GBPAUD — GBP/AUD broke below the symmetrical triangle that had been forming since the end of May. The move may be a bit overextended as CCI is well below -100. Today’s candle (so far) has an extremely long lower wick. If the candle closes in this manner, then a reversal to the upside is suggested. Hourly CCI has bounced from below 30 and formed slight bearish divergence, which reinforces the view regarding the daily candle. A bounce would likely encounter stalling/resistance at the 7/7 low of 2.4534. A break below today’s 2.4269 low would immediately run into possible support from the 61.8% fibo of 2.3668-2.5167 at 2.4241.


Glossary of Terms

CCI(20) — 20 day Commodity Channel Index

> 0 — bullish

0 > — bearish

> 100 — extremely bullish