Cold Winter Heats Oils

Energies sprung higher Friday, fueled by a sluggish build
up of heating oil. Energy watchers are concerned that stockpiles almost 20%
below year-ago levels will not be replenished fast enough to meet winter demand
in the Northeast, the primary consumption region. Tuesday’s API report showed a sharp
weekly reduction in
both crude oil and distillates (heating oil) inflows into storage and this has
led to a four-day rally that has taken crude and heating oil up over 8%. Heating oil
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closed .0254 higher at .8200 and crude gained 1.26 to 29.92.

 

Natural gas, from the Momentum-5
List
, also rallied for a fourth day on lower stockpiles and on pre-hurricane
season speculation, but closed at gap-opening levels, up .046 at 4.296.

Friendly employment data that showed unemployment holding
steady at 4% and a slight up tick in hourly wages, triggered the fifth day of a
rally and carried September T-bonds
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10/32 higher to a contract high
of 99 22/32. September 10-year notes
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also closed at a contract
record, up 10/32 at 99 26/32.

Stock index futures turned in a mixed performance in response to the
employment data.
September S&P futures
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closed 10.20 higher at 1471.70,
NASDAQ 100 futures
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fell 30.50 to 3632.00 and
Dow futures
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gained 45.0 to 10,800.0.

In January 2001 pork bellies
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, a steady down trend was interrupted by
a solid rally to the upside following a Turtle Soup Plus One Buy
setup. Bellies closed up 2.275 at 71.300.

Soft commodities were weak across the board with
coffee
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forming a potential shoulder after a wicked witche’s hat head
that could spell big downside. The Brazilian Agriculture Ministry said it would
announce a number of measures next week to offset crop damage in growing regions.
Government support of farmers could prove to be a more important national priority than lowering production to
support prices and this could add pressure to prices. Coffee closed 25 lower
at 85.60, near contract lows. 

October sugar
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saw good downside action after reversing off a 20-day high
to make
good on its Turtle Soup Plus One
Sell
setup. A second short entry was also presented in the last 45 minutes
near session highs. Sugar closed .26 lower at 10.80. Fundamental traders pointed
out that limited global supply and demand from the Middle Eastern countries
could push sugar to new highs. 

Cocoa
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continued tumbling for a second day to a
new contract low, making good on its
Implosion-5 List to
end .21 lower at 777.

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