Consumer Sentiment: Jobs Or Stocks?

The Event:

University of Michigan’s Preliminary Consumer Sentiment report will be released at 9:55 AM on Friday, April 16th, 2010.


This is the first of 2 consumer sentiment reports, with the revised one being released around 15 days later. The data is gathered by polling 500 consumers regarding their thoughts and observations on the economy. This release (preliminary) is more likely to move the USD based pairs than the revised version since it is more likely to surprise. If the number beats estimates, it’s considered bullish for the USD, missing estimates is considered bearish.

Trader Take:

The USD is starting to take back control. A re-emergence of Greek tension and negative euro rhetoric from the ECB are depressing the euro currency. The sentiment number is forecast to be 74.7, a slight improvement over last release. Provided the domestic job situation, it is unlikely the number will exceed forecasts. However, the roaring bull market in stocks may work to counteract the dire job news in some consumer’s minds.

David Goodboy is Vice President of Business Development for a New York City based multi-strategy fund.

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