Daily Forex Market Commentary
GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary for January 19, 2007
Forex Market Commentary by Cornelius Luca, Currencies Analyst, GFT
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The star remains the sterling/yen, with both dollar/yen and sterling/dollar rallying steadily. Meanwhile, euro/dollar and dollar/Swiss franc are marking time. There is little reason to expect anything different today.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar traded sideways but closed marginally higher on Thursday. It should attempt to extend its gains, but only a break above 1.3020 gets the ball rolling.
Initial resistance is at 1.3000. Above 1.3020, euro/dollar has resistance at 1.3060 and 1.3090. Next level is 1.3130. Distant resistance is at 1.3240.
Below 1.2868, the pair retains strong support at 1.2820. A close below this level would signal a further significant decline to 1.2760.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen rallied strongly after the BoJ failed to act up on its inference and held its benchmark interest rate at 0.25 percent instead. The all too powerful government officials got involved once again — there goes the independence of the central bank. The pound/yen cross remains in good shape.
The pair broke the resistance at 121.05 from another 50-pip pivot, and reached the upside target at 121.55. Above 121.75, dollar/yen faces resistance at 122.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 122.00 and 123.00.
Initial support is at 121.05. Below 120.45, support is seen at 120.15. Strong support follows at 119.65 from a 50-pip pivot, which targets 120.15 and 119.15.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar remains the strongest of the European currencies’ lot, and rallied further on Thursday to a 1 ½-month high. It broke a major resistance, so hold on to long Cable positions.
Immediate resistance is at 1.9846 from a pivotal high. If it breaks above it, then the pair will challenge the further resistance at 1.9867. Distant resistance is at 2.0000.
Below 1.9710, support is still seen at 1.9635. Distant support is now seen at 1.9570.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc didn’t do that much on Thursday, but managed to make a new high for the uptrend at 1.2546. The pair should consolidate further and try to break out of the sideways phase. The downside is favored.
Immediate support comes at 1.2430. That is followed by 1.2385.
Initial resistance is at 1.2546. Above it, resistance remains at 1.2660 from the target of a bull flag.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with bearish bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
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