Daily Forex Market Commentary

The dollar slipped only briefly early Monday on profit taking and the decline was helped by news the US current-account deficit widened to a record $225.6 billion last quarter from $217.1 billion in the second quarter. It then gave back gains to close little changed on Monday. Again, following some pull back on profit taking, the dollar should attempt a final rally.


The euro/dollar fell to a 25-day low of 1.3051 on Monday but then recouped losses to close virtually unchanged. A significant peak is in place and the pair should make a further decline in the medium term. But the pair is oversold in the short term, so it should first edge higher.

Above the very strong 1.3130 level, euro/dollar has resistance at 1.3180, 1.3230 and then at 1.3290.
Only a break of the support at 1.3055 on a closing basis would accelerate the decline. Euro/dollar then has support at 1.2985.

Oscillators are falling.

MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed with bearish bias
LONG-TERM: Bullish


Dollar/yen encountered choppy trading and got stuck in an inside range on Monday. However, the upside remains cautiously positive.

The pair should challenging the resistance at 118.75, which is the target of the 118.25 pivot. Next level is now the 50-point pivot at 119.65, which targets 116.15 and 120.15.

Below 117.75, there is support at 117.10. A break above this strong level would test the 50-point pivot at 116.85, which targets 116.35 and 117.35.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
LONG-TERM: Bearish


Sterling/dollar made yet another mild decline on Monday and hit a three-week low. It closed marginally below 1.9500 and this suggests a continuation of the decline. However, the odds are that the pair will consolidate today.

Below 1.9432, support comes at 1.9410. Strong support remains at 1.9335 from a Fibonacci retracement level.

Initial resistance is at 1.9560. Above 1.9610, the pair has resistance at 1.9675 from a Fibonacci retracement level.

Oscillators are declining.

MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed with bearish bias

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss franc rallied further on Monday and reached a 25-day high before giving up of its gains. It should attempt to climb higher today as well, despite being overbought in the short term. The pair formed an inversed head and shoulders, which targets the 1.2310 area.

Above the Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2266, the pair has resistance at 1.2310 and 1.2330.

Immediate support is at 1.2184. That is followed by 1.2130 and 1.2090.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with bullish bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed with bullish bias

Visit GFT to Learn More

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the author are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.