Daily forex market commentary
The dollar was all over the place on Wednesday,
fending off a decline caused by a soft report on existing housing, but ending lower only versus the pound and the yen. The dollar should see recovery today. However, reports on US durable goods orders and housing should be weak, abd Germany’s IFO report should be weak as well. The market will continue to struggle for direction for another two weeks or so.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar slipped to a one-week low on Wednesday, then recovered about half of Tuesday’s losses, only to close virtually unchanged. With weak data expected from both Germany and the US, expect further choppy trading and don’t hug positions for long.
Immediate support is at 1.2755. Below 1.2740, strong support is seen between 1.2690 and 1.2700. Distant support is at 1.2655.
Initial resistance is seen at 1.2800 and then at 1.2835. That’s followed by 1.2900. Above 1.2938, the pair has resistance from a pivotal high at 1.2979.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen edged lower on Wednesday but got stuck in an inside range again. The direction is unclear, so play the pivots again.
Good resistance remains at 116.85 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 116.35 and 117.35.
Initial support is seen at 116.10 and that’s followed by 115.80. Strong support is at 115.50, from a 50-pip pivot, which targets 116.00 and 115.00. This level also marks the support from a short-term trendline. Distant support is at 114.20 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 113.70 and 114.70.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Sterling/dollar
The sterling/dollar headed higher on Wednesday but remained within Monday’s range.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.8930. Good resistance is then stacked at 1.9000. Strong resistance follows at 1.9050. Above 1.9080, good resistance follows at around 1.9145.
Support is first seen at 1.8870. Further support is at 1.8870. Below 1.8845 there is support at 1.8775.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc reversed both small gains and losses on Wednesday to close pretty much unchanged. Expect more of the same today.
Initial resistance is at 1.2390. Above 1..2440, resistance is pegged at 1.2520.
Immediate support is at 1.2330 and then at 1.2295. That’s followed by 1.2230. Below 1.2175, which is a long-term Fibonacci retracement level, the pair has support at 1.2095. There is a distant pivotal low in place at 1.2015.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
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