Daily Forex Market Commentary
Crosses ruled Thursday’s trading, as the euro, sterling and the commodity currencies advanced, while the yen and the franc slipped. The biggest game in town for years, long crosses against the yen, is back on the front burner. With the US non-farm payrolls on the immediate horizon, FX should be quiet before the report and then should explode. Rush for a quick trade after the release.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar struggled higher on Thursday, as expected, but got stuck in an inside range. The short-term outlook is bullish.
Resistance remains at 1.3732. Strong support follows at 1.3775. There is a pivotal high at 1.3853. Distant resistance is now pegged at 1.3935.
Initial support is still in place at 1.3665. Support follows at 1.3625 from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the June 13 — July 24 leg of the uptrend and then at 1.3605. Next level is at 1.3555.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen consolidated above the long-term trendline support at 108.00. Expect it to make another attempt higher today — but not too aggressive.
Immediate resistance is at 119.40. Strong, resistance is seen at 119.65 from a 50-point pivot that targets 119.15 and 120.15.
Below 118.60, support is still seen at 118.25 from a 50-point pivot that targets 117.75 and 118.75. Next key level is at 118.00. Distant support looms at 116.75.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Sterling/dollar
The sterling/dollar struggled to a four-day high during the expected upmove on Thursday. The initial bias is still upward.
Initial resistance is at 2.0380. Further resistance is at 2.0430.
Immediate support is at 2.0310. A break below the 2.0245 level would signal a further slide to 2.0200. Only a break below this level would confirm that a peak is finally in place.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc made intraday gains on Thursday but closed little changed. Sideways lower trading is likely.
Initial resistance is at 1.2090. Next level remains at 1.2140. It would take a break above this level to increase the odds that a significant low is in place.
Immediate support is seen at 1.2020. Strong support follows at 1.1962. If this pivotal low gives way, then the downtrend is rejuvenated and dollar/Swiss should challenge 1.1835.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
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