Daily Forex Market Commentary
The dollar fell against the euro and the franc on Thursday on stop-loss orders and position squaring ahead of the release of the US non-farm payrolls report and of the Good Friday holiday. The pound was under pressure on apparent disappointment that the Bank of England didn’t hike rates. Following the customary spikes for a few minutes after the release of the US unemployment report the FX market, one of the very few open today, will die. The risk for the dollar is on the upside because the selling had already occurred.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar rallied to a two-year high on Thursday after tripping stops and options barriers at 1.3400, but failed to surpass the 1.3450 barrier. So, this is the line in the sand today.
If 1.3450 is surpassed, look for a test of the pivot high at 1.3479. Strong resistance is at 1.3490. Distant and significant resistance is at 1.3665 from another pivot high.
Initial support is at 1.3400. A break below 1.3365 would signal a further slide to 1.3318. Strong support is at 13287.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen failed breaking out in either direction and closed virtually unchanged on Thursday. Sideways trading is expected today as well — but only after the shock of the non-farm payrolls report.
Above 119.15, dollar/yen retains strong resistance at 119.65 from another 50-point pivot that targets 119.15 and 120.15.
Initial support still has support at 118.40. Strong support is at 118.25 from a 50-point pivot that targets 117.75 and 118.75.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with bullish bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Sterling/dollar
With the BoE on hold before Easter and the industrial production down, the overbought sterling/dollar fell on Thursday. The weakness was in contrast with other the European currencies. The pair remains in a consolidation phase.
Key support comes at 1.9680 from a rising trendline. If his line snaps, then the pair will head for 1.9630. It would take a close below this level to signal the end of the uptrend, but this is less likely.
Initial resistance is at 1.9760. Next level remains at 1.9821. A break above this level would signal another bout of aggressive strength, but this is unlikely. There is a pivot high at 1.9914.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss fell to the lowest level of the week. It should attempt to dig deeper, but unless 1.2110 is smashed, look for a quick rebound.
If 1.2110 gives way, then look for further weakness to 1.2075. There is a pivot low at 1.2028. Further support is at 1.1980.
If 1.2110 holds, expect a bounce to 1.2165. A break above this level would signal a further bounce to 1.2200. Strong resistance is at 1.2238. Distant resistance is at 1.2300.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
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