Decline Expected into the Sept-Oct Period
From 1990 to 1997, Kevin Haggerty served as Senior Vice President for Equity Trading at Fidelity Capital Markets, Boston, a division of Fidelity Investments. He was responsible for all U.S. institutional Listed, OTC and Option trading in addition to all major Exchange Floor Executions. For a free trial to Kevin’s Daily Trading Report, please click here.
COMMENTARY FOR 7/29/10
The SPX has rallied +10.9% in 17 days to the 1120.95 high on 7/27, but closed at 1113.84 which was below the 200DSMA, and 1115.35 which is the .50RT to 1219.80 from 1010.91. I must point out that 1121 is the .50RT to 1576 from 667, and key levels like this are in play in both directions.
The SPX made an 1131.23 high on 6/21/10, but only closed that day at 1117.51, so that 1121, .50RT level came into play again, as did the 1130.28 .50RT to 1219.80 from the 5/25/10 1040.78 low. After yesterday’s 1106.13 close, the SPX is below the 200DSMA, which is now 1114.12, and above the 1105.57 neckline of the previous significant range B/O, and above the 1094.55 200DEMA.
Month end for the Generals is Friday, and the SPX is +7.3% MTD, with the SPX futures +7.7 points as I complete this at 9:05AM, so the Generals will hold their gains. However, the best case for the extent of this current rally based on price and time symmetry, would be the 1140 .618RT to 1219.80 from the 1010.91 low, and the time frame being no later than 8/15 before a significant decline into the Sept-Oct period.
The key time symmetry next week is a long term Pi date measured from the 10/11/07 1576 bull market top. Keep in mind that the SPX hit its high in April, which was month 13 [Fib] from the 667 bear market low, and then declined -17.1% to the 1010.91 low at the 1009 .382RT zone to 667 from 1219.80.
There is also an SPX 5RSI negative divergence on the daily chart as the SPX made the 1120.95 high, but the best short opportunity will be if the previous 1131.23 high gets taken out because that would also set up the RST short pattern for those of you familiar with my trading strategies. The next decline could easily reach the 952-943 zone.
Have a good trading day!
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