Do You Have Confidence In Your Trading?
Stock index futures
opened Thursday’s
session with gaps to the downside, despite a better-than-expected
Jobless Claims number. After filling 1/2 the gap and stalling at the Daily
Pivot, the ES turned down again and the weakness was exacerbated by a
disappointing report on Leading Economic Indicators and news of a
slower-than-expected rate of expansion in factory activity in the Philly Fed
report. The ES had just broken Wednesday’s low to print a new session low when
a report hit the wires that a “high level” Al Qaida target had been surrounded
along the border of Pakistan and Afghanistan. The report ignited a 13-point
short squeeze, but the gains were short-found as the contract stalled at
Wednesday’s session high and came tumbling right back down again. After
chopping in a tight range just under the Pivot, good broker buying gave the
contract another push that stalled again at that 1125 resistance area.
The June SP 500 futures closed
Wednesday’s session with a gain of +0.25 point, and finished in the top 1/2 of
the daily range. Volume in the ES was estimated at 695,000 contracts, which was
behind Wednesday’s pace, and right at the daily average. Looking at the daily
chart, the ES continues to hold the 38% retracement of the 3/5-16 down move and
now the 10-day MA has joined party as resistance. On an intraday basis, 1125
stands as a failed triple-top with 60-min and 30-min support at 1120 and 1119.
The Dollar Index (DXC) broke
back below daily support marked by its previous range and its 100-day and 20-day
MAs. June bonds saw pressure from the Dollar weakness and settled right on
10-day MA support. The Banking Index (BKX) continues to be pinned by resistance
at its broken daily trend line.           Â
Friday is officially “quadruple
witching” and, aside from any new (or old) OBL rumors, I would expect a choppy
range that contracts into nothing as the day goes on.
Do You Have
Confidence?
What is confidence? Confidence
is different than faith, which is a hope that leads to action. ConfidenceÂ
makes things seem
clearer, increases our ability to act, and creates an environment where peak
performance is possible.
Where does confidence come from? It can’t be purchased for $3,000, it can’t be
backtested or simulated, it can’t be copied from the pages of a book or article,
or even derived from our results. Confidence comes from within. It can’t be
bottled or stored, has a short shelf life, and has to be periodically
replenished.
You can have confidence in many things such as your computer, your software,
your system, your skill, etc., but will that help you be a winning trader?Â
Unless your computer, software, and system are operating independent of YOU,
there is a missing ingredient. Believing that you have the capability to do the
right thing is the first step. Believing that you WILL do the right thing
follows with time and experience.
Confidence will keep you going when few things can. It points you in the right
direction and gives you something to work towards. It also makes you feel good
and last time I checked, feeling good and trading well are not-so-distant
relatives. Do you have confidence?
Please feel free to email me with any questions
you might have and have a great trading day tomorrow!