Dollar Falls, Oil Pauses On A Mixed Report

The Dollar fell today on news that the BOJ and ECB both plan
to raise rates over the summer.  The Energy Department’s inventory report
showed a rise in gasoline inventories and a fall in crude.  Hot weather
affected grain prices today, as corn and soybeans gained on news that the
Midwest could continue to see hot, dry skies.  The ISM Index showed a
slowing in the service industry, which could lead to a pause in the rate hikes.

The US Department of Energy said that crude supplies were down
2.4 million barrels to 341.3 million barrels.  Gasoline stockpiles, on the
other hand, rose 727,000 barrels to 213.1 million.  Despite an unexpected
rise in gasoline, crude oil futures remained largely unchanged, hovering around
the record highs the futures contract closed at yesterday.

The US Dollar fell the most in three weeks after both the ECB
President and the Bank of Japan Governor signaled that rate hikes were more than
probable before the end of the summer.

After yesterday’s fall in the treasuries, the ISM Index helped
to boost the 10-year note.  The ISM numbers showed that service industry
growth slowed during the month of June, which weakened the case that the Fed
will raise rates for the 18th straight time in August.

The gold futures contract closed slightly lower while silver
edged higher after yesterday’s gains coming from the North Korean missile

Grains all traded higher today on news that the Midwest will
continue to have hot, dry weather, which would potentially damage the corn crop
for this year.  Corn traded higher 2.4% and soybeans were up 2.3%.

The softs traded mostly lower today, with orange juice down
1.3% and coffee down 0.5%.  Lumber stood out, up nearly 2% for the day.


Crude Inventories Slide, Gasoline Inventories Rise (full

Service Sector Growth Slows More Than Expected In June (full

ECB Holds Key Interest Rates After June’s Increase, Trichet
Seeks “strong Vigilance” (full

John Patrick Lee