Dollar Gets A Boost…But Will It Last?
· Japanese Yen Loses Ground
· British Rejected at 1.8500
· Swiss Franc Can’t Take 1.2200
· Canadian Dollar Breaks 1.1100
· Australian Dollar Losing Momentum
· New Zealand Dollar Moves Sideways
EUR/USD — EUR/USD surpassed the 1.2800 figure in early European trading today and pierced the 7/3 high of 1.2821 before retreating back to below 1.2800 and testing the 7/3 low at 1.2760 — creating a short term double bottom. Continued weakness probes the former intraday resistance at 1.2730. In any case, the rallies are more impulsive than the declines, which favor longs. Initial resistance is at the high from early European trading today at 1.2837. A push higher exposes the 78.6% fibo of 1.2976-1.2481 at 1.2869.
USD/JPY — USD/JPY appears to made 3 waves up from 114.10 to possible complete a correction at 115.21. If this is the case, then USD/JPY is likely headed lower towards 113.62/72 — which is where the decline from 115.21 would equal 61.8% of the decline from 116.67 to 114.10 as well as the 38.2% fibo of 108.96-116.67. If the correction of weakness is not yet over, then the confluence of the 20 day SMA / 7/5 high at 115.18/21 is initial resistance with the 61.8% fibo of 116.60-114.10 at 115.64 also as resistance.
GBP/USD — Like EUR/USD, Cable rallied past yesterday’s high and failed. The correction from strength to 1.8486 could be in the 3rd wave of a 3 wave corrective pattern. If this is the case, then the 3rd wave started at today’s 1.8486 high and may be headed towards the 38.2% fibo of 1.8090-1.8496 at 1.8340. Oscillators on the daily have turned bullish as MACD slope is positive and RSI and CCI have both crosses above midpoints of 50 and 0. Initial resistance is the high from today at 1.8486 with additional strength probing the 50% fibo of 1.9025-1.8090 at 1.8557.
USD/CHF — After bouncing off of support at the 50% fibo of 1.1919-1.2525 at 1.2223, USD/CHF rallied to within pips of the 1.2300 figure. Like GBP/USD, this rally could very well be the 3rd wave in a larger corrective pattern. If the rally has more left in the tank, then the pair could challenge the 38.2% fibo of 1.2499-1.2223 at 1.2328 as well as the confluence of the 10 and 20 day SMAs at 1.2349/57. If the rally is over, then the pair would approach support at the low from today at 1.2201 with a break lower exposing the 61.8% fibo of 1.1919-1.2525 at 1.2150.
USD/CAD — The supporting trendline that began on 5/31 at 1.0927 has been broken to the downside. Another potential supporting trendline is near 1.1020 (from the 5/31 and 6/12 lows). The decline from 1.1283 is in a 5th decline. Estimates for an end to wave 5 are Fibonacci multiples of wave 1 (1.1283-1.1172) at 1.1031 (138.2%) and 1.1003 (161.8% and psychological). However, bullish divergence with oscillators on the hourly suggests that there is not much room left to the downside. Initial resistance is at today’s high of 1.1098.
AUD/USD — AUD/USD trades at the 200 day SMA at .7434. The pair continues to make higher highs but momentum to the upside is slowing which is evidenced by bearish divergence with oscillators on the hourly. The pair has consolidated in an upward sloping channel (see chart below) and a break below that channel would open the door for a decline to the confluence of the 20 day SMA / 50% fibo of .7270-.7470 at .7371. Today’s high at .7470 is initial resistance (it is also the 38.2% fibo of .7791-.7270).
NZD/USD — Today’s high at .6116 formed a triple top with the previous day’s high of .6112 and the 6/30 high of .6020. Like AUD/USD, the Kiwi is also resisted by the 38.2% fibo of .6428-.5927 at .6118. If that level holds, then the pair could test the confluence of the 6/30 low / 50% fibo of .5927-.6120 at .6023/27. A break lower encounters the 61.8% fibo at the psychological .6000 level.
Glossary of Terms
CCI(20) — 20 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 — bullish
0 > — bearish
> 100 — extremely bullish
-100 > – extremely bearish
RSI(14) — 14 day Relative Strength Index
> 50 — bullish
50 > — bearish
> 70 — overbought
30 > – oversold
MACD ? – MACD slope (MACD — MACD[1])
> 0 — bullish
0 > – bearish
Mom(8) — 8 day Momentum (shorter-term direction)
> 0 — bullish
0 > – bearish
ATR(14) — 14 day Average True Range (volatility)
Medium — 75th percentile* > ATR(14) > 25th percentile*
High – > 75th percentile*
Low — 25th percentile* >
ADX(14) — 14 day Average Directional Index (directional strength)
> 30 — strong
30 > – weak
*measured against past 3 months