Dollar Selling No Surprise–Here’s Why

Strength in the soybean complex helped provide
some initial support but the presence of China as a world exporter has offset
the positive influence of a record low in the US dollar and commercial selling
emerged on minor strength. The National Grains and Oils Information Centre in
China indicated that corn yields for 2004 will be the second largest in history
and corn production has been revised higher to near 132 million tons from 116
million tons last year. The current USDA forecast is at 126 million tons. Cash
markets are firm in the interior US as light producer selling remains as a
positive force for the cash market. Deliverable stocks of corn in Chicago jumped
to 5.344 million bushels for the week ending November 19th as compared with
4.655 million the previous week and 2.235 million last year. Total deliverable
stocks from all locations jumped to 11.941 million bushels from 11.128 million
the previous week and 7.023 million last year. Harvest was 92% complete as of
Sunday as compared with 90% as the 14-year average for this time of the year.
March corn support comes in at 207 1/4 and 202 3/4 with resistance at 210 and
212 1/4.

Technical Outlook

CORN (MAR) 11/24/2004: Daily stochastics
declining into oversold territory suggest the selling may be drying up soon. A
negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving
average. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing
pivot. The next downside objective is now at 207 1/4. The next area of
resistance is around 208 3/4 and 209 1/2, while 1st support hits today at 207
3/4 and below there at 207 1/4.

 

SOY COMPLEX RECAP

11/23/2004

January Soybeans finished up 6 3/4 at 561 1/4,
3/4 off the high and 7 3/4 up from the low. March Soybeans closed up 6 at 564
1/2. This was 7 1/2 up from the low and 1/2 off the high.

January Soymeal closed up 3.3 at 162.6. This was
2.5 up from the low and 0.2 off the high.

January Soybean Oil finished down 0.04 at 21.67,
0.11 off the high and 0.17 up from the low.

A constant flow of news regarding the spread of
Asia rust across the southern US and concerns that next years yield will be hurt
by the spread of the disease into the US continues to support more buying and
short-covering from speculators. The highest close for January soybeans since
September 16th could attract additional short-covering ahead. Arkansas, the 9th
largest producing state has confirmed Asian rust and becomes the 6th state to
report rust. Keep in mind; speculators held a net short position of near 35,000
contracts as of November 16th. Rumors of a negative result on the mad cow
testing helped boost cattle futures but meal prices remained firm with the bulls
hopeful that the industry will be forced to restrict feed ingredients in the
future and that the mad cow scare will push administrators to restrict feeding
sooner rather than later. The USDA indicated into mid-session that the tests on
the suspect animal are still not complete and there is still no time frame for
when the results will be made public. Deliverable stocks of soybeans at all
locations for the week ending November 19th were reported at 6.068 million
bushels as compared with 7.109 million the previous week and 8.619 million last
year. The technical action is positive but the market is showing a short-term
overbought status basis traditional technical indicators after the recent surge
higher. Resistance for January soybeans comes in at 568 and 579 1/2 with support
at 557 and 554 1/2.

Technical Outlook

BEANS (JAN) 11/24/2004: Momentum studies are
trending higher but have entered overbought levels. A positive signal for trend
short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. A positive setup
occurred with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The near-term upside
target is at 568. With a reading over 70, the 9-day RSI is approaching
overbought levels. The next area of resistance is around 565 1/2 and 568, while
1st support hits today at 557 and below there at 551.

MEAL (JAN) 11/24/2004: Momentum studies are
trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The close above the 9-day
moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. Since the close was
above the 2nd swing resistance number, the market’s posture is bullish and could
see more upside follow-through early in the session. The near-term upside
objective is at 165.9. The market is approaching overbought levels with an RSI
over 70. The next area of resistance is around 165.2 and 165.9, while 1st
support hits today at 162.6 and below there at 160.6.

BEANOIL (JAN) 11/24/2004: Daily stochastics have
risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it
occurs. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term
indicator for trend. The market has a slightly positive tilt with the close over
the swing pivot. The near-term upside objective is at 22.10. The next area of
resistance is around 21.96 and 22.10, while 1st support hits today at 21.66 and
below there at 21.49.

 

WHEAT MARKET RECAP

11/23/2004

December Wheat finished down 1 1/2 at 300 1/2, 3 off the high
and 1/2 up from the low. March Wheat closed down 1 at 311. This was 3/4 up from
the low and 3 off the high.

Strength in the soybean market helped to support
wheat futures early but the trade seems more concerned that China demand will
decline this season due to the better than expected crop production and the
market failed to hold support. The National Grains and Oils Information Centre
in China indicated overnight that wheat production for 2004 should reach 91.3
million tons as compared with 86.5 million tons last year. As a result, wheat
imports for the coming year could be down from this season. The new low in the
US dollar has failed to provide much support to wheat as traders await a
significant, non-routine buyer to step foreword at the current price level. If
not, the trade believes that prices will need to move low enough to attract new
demand. Taiwan set a tender to buy up to 43,000 tons of US wheat. December KC
wheat gapped the uptrend channel this morning and seems to be the market leading
wheat futures lower into the mid-session. Deliverable stocks of wheat at all
locations for the week ending November 19th were reported at 20.64 million
bushels as compared with 20.518 million the previous week and 23.782 million
last year. March wheat support comes in at 309 1/2 and 308 with resistance at
318 3/4 and 321 1/4. The technical swing objective on a resumption of the
downtrend comes in at 298 if the 308 support fails.

Technical Outlook

WHEAT (MAR) 11/24/2004: Momentum studies trending
lower at mid-range could accelerate a price break if support levels are broken.
The market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the
short-term trend remains negative. The market tilt is slightly negative with the
close under the pivot. The next downside objective is now at 308. The next area
of resistance is around 312 3/4 and 315 1/4, while 1st support hits today at 309
1/4 and below there at 308.

 

LIVE CATTLE RECAP

11/23/2004

December Live Cattle closed up 2.60 at 87.25.
This was 2.30 up from the low and 0.40 off the high.

January Feeder Cattle finished up 0.20 at 99.72,
1.42 off the high and 0.32 up from the low.

The cattle market surged higher into the
mid-session led by persistent poor weather for the southern plains feedlot
region and rumors that the USDA was about to announce a negative result from the
mad cow testing on a US cow. The USDA, however, announced that the tests were
not complete and that the results of the test would be announced when completed.
A time or date of the announcement is still not available. In spite of the
announcement, the cattle market picked-up steam late in the session as forecasts
for 5-10 inches of snow into the northern Texas panhandle region was enough to
support the market. Feedlot conditions are already muddy and more moisture in
the middle of the week with another possibility of storms for the weekend has
traders concerned with the available supply of market-ready cattle into early
next week. Boxed-beef cut-out values were up 46 cents at mid-session to $138.09
as compared with $137.31 last week at this time.

Technical Outlook

CATTLE (DEC) 11/24/2004: The cross over and close
above the 40-day moving average is an indication the longer-term trend has
turned positive. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish
indication. Momentum studies are rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a
move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The close above the 9-day
moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. The market has a
bullish tilt coming into today’s trade with the close above the 2nd swing
resistance. The near-term upside target is at 89.470. The next area of
resistance is around 88.600 and 89.470, while 1st support hits today at 85.920
and below there at 84.100.

 

LEAN HOGS RECAP

11/23/2004

December Lean Hogs closed up 1.30 at 76.10. This
was 1.85 up from the low and 0.10 off the high.

February Pork Bellies finished up 1.55 at 100.75,
0.40 off the high and 2.25 up from the low.

February hogs pushed higher with choppy,
two-sided trade as the market recovered from early losses supported by higher
cattle prices and the discount of futures to the cash market. Early weakness was
led by weak pork cut-out values on Monday night and from rumors that the USDA
was about to announce that the mad cow tests were negative. If another mad cow
is reported in the US, traders believe that pork exports will remain strong so
rumors of a negative test result helped trigger the early sell-off. The CME
2-Day Lean Index for the period ending November 19th was reported at 78.80, up
$.35 from the previous session and up from 75.78 the previous week.

Technical Outlook

HOGS (DEC) 11/24/2004: The market made a new
contract high on the rally. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is
a bullish indication. Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered
overbought levels. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close
over the 9-bar moving average. The outside day up and close above the previous
day’s high is a positive signal. There could be more upside follow through since
the market closed above the 2nd swing resistance. The next upside target is
77.600. With a reading over 70, the 9-day RSI is approaching overbought levels.
The next area of resistance is around 77.050 and 77.600, while 1st support hits
today at 75.120 and below there at 73.720.

 

COCOA MARKET RECAP

11/23/2004

December Cocoa finished up 27 at 1593, equal to
the high and 14 up from the low.

The cocoa market showed surprising strength
Tuesday and did so off something other than renewed violence at the Ivory Coast.
Apparently the recent decline in prices has discouraged marketing by producers,
which in turn lessens the flow of beans and that has forced the commercials to
pay up for some near term needs. There are also suggestions that a more
aggressive quality control system is resulting in some delayed cocoa flow and
that is another reason why prices are finding an increase in prices. Supposedly
some loads of cocoa are being rejected because of mold levels that violate
limits and that means the beans have to be re-mixed with good beans and
re-delivered.

Technical Outlook

COCOA (DEC) 11/24/2004: Negative momentum studies
in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. The close below
the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. With the
close over the 1st swing resistance number, the market is in a moderately
positive position. The next downside target is now at 1576. The next area of
resistance is around 1600 and 1603, while 1st support hits today at 1586 and
below there at 1576.

 

COFFEE MARKET RECAP

11/23/2004

December Coffee closed down 0.10 at 89.25. This
was 0.75 up from the low and 2.25 off the high.

While March coffee managed to close slightly
higher on the session, the close below the opening and the close which was 185
points off of the highs of the day leaves the appearance of a potential
near-term top. The volume of trade was light and the weak dollar has helped
support London futures over the past several days and the weak dollar against
the Brazil real, (new 17-month lows) has helped slow producer selling out of
Brazil. Normally, an up market would stimulate producer selling but with
supplies already tight out of Brazil, the slowdown in producer selling has been
a supportive factor. While a weak close, it was still the second highest close
in the life of contract for March futures. Fear of quality or yield damage due
to approaching typhoon in Vietnam added to the early bullish tone for the
market.

Technical Outlook

COFFEE (DEC) 11/24/2004: Momentum studies
trending lower at mid-range should accelerate a move lower if support levels are
taken out. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the
short-term trend remains positive. The daily closing price reversal down puts
the market on the defensive. The market’s close below the pivot swing number is
a mildly negative setup. The next downside objective is 86.65. The next area of
resistance is around 90.75 and 92.60, while 1st support hits today at 87.75 and
below there at 86.65.

 

SUGAR MARKET RECAP

11/23/2004

March Sugar closed down 0.02 at 8.86. This was
0.04 up from the low and 0.03 off the high.

March sugar inched lower in quiet trade on
Tuesday with a tight range of just 7 ticks. Volume was light as traders prepare
for a 4-day weekend ahead and the buyers or sellers do not feel urgency to act
ahead of the holiday period. Cash activity remains slow and supplies from Brazil
seem adequate to meet demand but with firm ethanol prices and lower returns in
local currency for Brazil producers (US dollar hit 17-month lows against the
real) millers may have more incentive to move cane to ethanol producers.
Indonesia officials are likely to set the 2005 white sugar import quota near
300,000 tons which is down from recent years as sugar production is expected to
increase by near 20% to 2 million tons.

Technical Outlook

SUGAR (MAR) 11/24/2004: Daily stochastics have
risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it
occurs. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term
indicator for trend. The daily closing price reversal down puts the market on
the defensive. The market has a slightly positive tilt with the close over the
swing pivot. The next upside objective is 8.92. The next area of resistance is
around 8.89 and 8.92, while 1st support hits today at 8.83 and below there at
8.79.

 

COTTON MARKET RECAP

11/23/2004

December Cotton finished up 0.22 at 49.00, 0.10
off the high and 0.50 up from the low.

After moving to the highest level since November
3rd early in the session, the market pushed lower on the day late and closed 44
lower for March cotton and near the lows of the day. The bulk of the moisture in
Texas shifted to the eastern areas of the state which left some hope that the
region would dry out and that harvest could resume. The weekly crop progress
report showed that 72% of the crop was is now harvested as compared with 83% as
the 14-year average for this time of the year. In Texas, just 45% of the cotton
crop is harvested as compared with 66% as the 5-year average for this time of
the year. While there is snow in the forecast for the panhandle region, Lubbock
Texas cotton areas look sunny and dry for Wednesday through the weekend which is
a shift from recent wet weather and could be seen as a bearish development.

Technical Outlook

COTTON (DEC) 11/24/2004: Rising stochastics at
overbought levels warrant some caution for bulls. The market’s close above the
9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The market
has a slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. The near-term
upside objective is at 49.50. The market is becoming somewhat overbought now
that the RSI is over 70. The next area of resistance is around 49.30 and 49.50,
while 1st support hits today at 48.70 and below there at 48.30.