Early Green

January 19, 2001
Kevin Haggerty

We are
pleased to announce that Kevin Haggerty’s audio commentary is again available
each morning from 8:30 a.m. ET.

An
excellent trading day as the Generals
came to feed again on the Semis and other major techs, like pigs at the trough.
The NDX 100
(
NDX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) advanced 4.4% led mostly by the Semis again, as evidence
by the SOX (+ 7.2%). Once again, you had some real power moves that gave you
both continuation and intraday pattern entries.

Both the NDX and SPX closed
above their 50-day EMAs. The SPX, after making an intraday double top at the
1352.50 level, closed at 1347.98, still below its last swingpoint high of
1350.24. Both the NDX and SPX gave you good entries. The NDX had a Trap Door,
then a three-bar pullback with entry that cleared all the EMAs, the 8-, 20-, 60-
and 260- on your five-minute charts. It
was uptrend for the remainder of the session.

The SPX came out of an
early 6 point box between 1332.90 and 1327. The base of the 13-bar box was right at the 260-EMA. The
breakout above 1332.90 cleared all of its EMAs as mentioned yesterday, and from
there rallied to make its twin towers at the 1352.50 level. Getting
ready for today, you have a closing range of 1352.71 on the high side to 1346 on
the low.Â

Below 1346 takes it out of
the range and below its 8-, 20- and 60-EMAs. The 260-EMA is down at 1336. Of
course the upside breakout gets it going again above that last swingpoint high.
As I reach this point in the text, it is
7 a.m. ET and the S&P futures are +13.5 points and the NDH is plus the limit
65.

Today I have included a
semiconductor sector list, along with the key analysts that can have an effect
on the group. Save this list and check your daily and intraday charts for setups
both long and short. Remember, only the rocks live forever. A good exercise will
be to go back and read my commentaries, starting with Dec.
6, where I said to stay all over the Semis. Check each day’s mention of the
Semis and the ones that set up. Check the daily charts of the various Semis to
check the buying -pressure patterns that kept repeating through the group.

The major reason for my
strong alert on the Semis was that I saw the same major patterns in most of the
Semis in early December that were present in August 1999 for most all of the
Internet stocks before they had another big blast up. I hope many of you that
came to the New York seminar identified the opportunity.Â

You also must realize that
stocks like
(
ELNT |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) only just hit its 200-day EMA yesterday. That’s how
oversold this group was. There will be good short opportunities as many test
their lows in some fashion. If you get an intraday short in stocks just back to
their 200-day EMA, take them because you will probably get some downside
airpocket.

(March
Futures)

Fair Value

Buy

Sell

10.35

Â 11.55

Â 8.90Â

Pattern
Setups

Have a good trading day.

SEMICONDUCTORS

Semiconductor
Analysts With Clout

General

BestÂ Â Â Mark EdelstoneÂ Â Â Â Morgan Stanley Dean Witter

MajorÂ Dan
NilesÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
Lehman Bros.

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Terry RagsdaleÂ Â Â Â Â
J P Morgan Securities

MinorÂ Joseph
OshaÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Merrill Lynch

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Charles BoucherÂ Â Â
Bear Stearns & Co.

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Jonathan JosephÂ Â Â
Salomon Smith
Barney

Capital
Equipment

BestÂ Â Â Â Gunnar
MillerÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Goldman Sachs & Co.

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Jay DeanhaÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
Morgan Stanley
Dean Witter

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Elliott RogersÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â
Credit Suisse First Boston

Early Green

BUY THE FEAR, SELL THE GREED

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