Economic Data to Guide Today’s Trading
Wednesday the market rallied off the FOMC announcement after spending the morning wound tightly. Volume increased with the announcement to support the rise in price to leave accumulation days.
Crude rallied again today to close up $1.17 at $58.14 on the day. Inventories were actually higher than expected but that did not damper the run up in crude. Gold also rallied today to close up $7.80 at $652.10.
Thursday has plenty of data to bring in the volatility. The Fed’s reaction left the market very bullish and overbought. We moved way to far to fast basically. Nice end of month volume, but still was a little to far with no retracements. So early into Thursday we have economic data and even bigger data on Friday. We’ll need to digest this move and that will not be easy given the economic data due both days. Extreme chop could come in throughout the day to help work out the digestion needs of this run up.
The semi’s are still not on track with the rest of the market, nor is the Nasdaq. Improved today but did not outshine the other indexes. The Dow attempted a new all time high for closing, but couldn’t sustain it at the very end of the day. The S&P 500 also came back off the multi year high to close a bit lower. Some retracements into at least 38.2% is needed to see if the strength sustains into the end of the week as we start a fresh month. Volume is likely to be lighter because Wednesday’s was definitely kicked up a notch, it should be hard to outperform on that front into Thursday.
Economic Data for the Week: Thursday 8:30 Personal Income, 08:30 Personal Spending, 08:30 Initial Claims, 10:00 ISM Index, 10:30 Natural Gas inventories, 12:00 Chain Store Sales, 17:00 Auto Sales, 17:00 Truck Sales, Friday 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls, 08:30 Unemployment Rate, 08:30 Hourly Earnings, 08:30 Average Workweek, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:00 Mich Sentiment Rev.
Some earnings for the week: Thursday pre market AGU, ASD, ADM, BSX, CELG, CLX, EOP, XOM, ITWO, IP, MHO, MRO, MNST, MYL, NUCO, HOT, UTEK, UA, VLO and after the bell AMZN, ANPI, ASYT, ATML, BKHM, CA, ERTS, ISRG, NBIX, ONNN, RACK, VRTX, WEBM, YRCW. Friday pre market AXL, ACI, CVX, ERIC, NYX, R, THQI, WEN. These are just some of the earnings on the week that maybe of interest, also keep in mind they can move without notice.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Thursday’s pivot is 1439.75, the weekly is 1432.50. ES is now in a possible double top pattern. We tested the high from the 24th (1446.50) and held that level. Intra day support: 1443, 1437.50, 1434.50, 1427.50. Resistance to look for: 1446.50, 1449.25, 1451.25, 1453, 1457.50. 60 minute chart is below.
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