Eminis look set for further downside action
From Thursday’s emini summation:
Sideways remains the short-term bias, but recent dead ranges are due to break
soon, and it will be a big break indeed when that happens.
That didn’t take any clairvoyance on our part
to predict. Knowing that emini markets were primed to break directionally in
stellar fashion was nothing more than pattern recognition. For a couple of years
now, periods of abnormally low intraday ranges are followed by big swing moves
in extended fashion. Thursday’s normal range price action was expected. Trading
as a profession is very seldom easy, but Thursday’s trading was easy as pie.
Nothing to it at all, and absolutely no reason or excuse why every active emini
trader did not finish the day highly profitable.
ES
emini
(+$50 per index point)
S&P 500 futures started off on sell signals
from 1326 and never once looked up from there. Long was 100% wrong… it was
sell signals all day, all the way. Any system or method that did not give you
one sell signal after another on a day like that is worthless junk, simple as
that.
They broke thru S1, S2 and then down to S3 in a
pure trend move. I see at least three short swings good for +4pt profit
potential by noon EST, and then a couple more into the afternoon for modest
gains as well. Just a pure delight to trade… this session was on of those
rare, simple & easy days!
ER
emini
(+$100 per index point)
Russell 2000 futures marched to the exact-same
drummer’s beat. Sell the open and keep selling all day, all the way. Straight
thru S1, S2 and S3 for a golden trend session event. We knew it was coming and
we darn sure know enough to ride the trend when such a highly expected event
graces our charts.
ES
emini
(+$50 per index point)
I noted in a public video that the S&P would
soon break and when it did, the result would be a 20pt or greater session range.
Thursday’s span was 20.50 index points from high to low. That wasn’t one whit of
clairvoyance on my part: simple pattern recognition. For the past couple of
years, micro-range periods of highly abnormal price action have been punctuated
with normal to outsized directional swings afterward. The pattern of traders’
emotional behavior remains intact, much like the celebrated pre-earnings run
patterns of technology stocks back in 1999 ~ 2000 era.
Now at the 50dma again, the S&Ps may not bounce
nearly as high if said support gives way this time around. Sooner or later, the
bulls will wake up, look around and realize something serious is going in the
overall financial world. That time could soon be at hand.
ER
emini
(+$100 per index point)
After three straight days of going absolutely
nowhere between the bells, ER chopped its way a bit lower on Wednesday. Unless
buyers step in with gusto, back to the 50dma near 760 is next.
Yesterday’s post for the ER rang true. Buyers
stayed away in earnest, sellers emerged with gusto and the 50dma magnet was
fulfilled. Next stop(s) could be 745 and 725 or lower.
Summation
Thursday’s session was all about sell signals all day, all the way. No buy signals existed on any emini
chart per any trade method worth its weight. Long was wrong all day, and those
who fought the obvious trend provided liquidity for the savvy traders in this market.
I’m quite sure
a number of emini traders outside our group saw various levels of “support” as
viable buying opportunities. Wrong. When a session like that breaks
directionally after nearly two weeks of extreme chart constipation, the freight
train is headed one way. Climb aboard at every pause and ride it from beginning
to end. Several days of micro-range chop may fool newbie traders into thinking
such an abnormal aberration will persist, but you & I sure know better than
that. We were ready for yesterday’s sweet trading, and with pre-market futures in
the hole as we approach Friday’s opening bell, it might be a two-peat today!
Trade To Win
Austin P
(Online video clip tutorials… open access)
Austin Passamonte is a full-time professional trader who specializes in E-mini stock index futures, equity
options and commodity markets. Mr. Passamonte’s trading approach uses proprietary chart patterns found on an
intraday basis. Austin trades privately in the Finger Lakes region of New York.