With the ^SPY^ and the ^QQQQ^ closing in radically overbought territory again on Wednesday, it is little surprise that the number of top ETF PowerRatings funds has grown fewer over the past several days.
I have pointed to a variety of strategies that high probability traders can use during runaway markets in recent columns (read my “ETF PowerRatings: Trading Bear Market Funds in Bull Markets” for the last discussion). But for many high probability traders, the task at hand is two-fold: (1) displaying the patience required to wait out the wildly overbought market conditions and (2) being ready to begin buying when the profit-taking becomes significant.
That said, there are a few exchange-traded funds that have been moving lower over the past few days. Three of these ETFs actually have moved into oversold territory and should be among those high probability traders are monitoring – especially if we get the profit-taking and selling that is likely just around the corner.
First up is a country fund. The ^EWJ^ (above) has closed lower for the past two days in a row, with the most recent close taking the ETF’s 2-period RSI below 30 from previously neutral territory. EWJ has an ETF PowerRating of 6.
Among those ETFs sliding into oversold territory as of Wednesday’s close was also a sector fund, the ^XLP^ (below).
XLP has closed lower for four days in a row, the last two in oversold territory. The fund has also earned an ETF PowerRating of 5 going into trading on Thursday.
The last fund I want to mention for this report also moved into oversold territory on Wednesday. This fund, the ^SLV^ (below) is a commodity ETF that tracks the actual price of silver, rather than the share prices of silver mining companies (compare with the ^GDX^).
The iShares Silver Trust ETF opened up on Wednesday but reversed course sharply during the trading day to close well into oversold territory above the 200-day moving average. This last point is especially relevant insofar as SLV’s proximity to its 200-day moving average is increasingly a reason for high probability traders to be wary of scaling-into the fund.
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David Penn is Editor in Chief at TradingMarkets.com.