Euphoria!
Euphoric relief that the economy did not slow as fast
as expected is giving way to more sanguine and pessimistic views about
today’s highly anticipated government data. The market had been expecting a 1%
drop in Q3 gross domestic product (GDP), but when it came in at down just
.4%, traders lifted indices, sending the Nasdaq Composite up as much as
4.5%.
But the government’s first look, or
“advanced,” GDP is notoriously inaccurate. Given past
discrepancies, it would be well within the margin of error for one of the
revisions to show GDP actually decreased more than the
consensus forecast of -1%. The short-lived relief rally also acknowledges
that the majority of the negative economic impact of the 9/11 attacks will
likely appear in Q4 GDP data.
Despite some better-than-expected economic news from
the Purchasing Managers Index-Chicago, a regional precursor to tomorrow’s
National Purchasing Managers report, stock indices are pulling back, with
the Dow succumbing and now underwater.
The Nasdaq is up 23.75 at 1692.65, the Dow is down 17
at 9106, and the S&P 500 is up 3.18 at 1062.91.
The Dow is rolling over, in part, due to a surge in
film sales reported by Fuji Film. Eastman Kodak
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PowerRating), a competitor and
Dow component, reported an 8% drop in sales last week along with its
earnings announcement. Kodak is down 10% at 25.10.
Intel’s
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positive cord in tech when he said the chip giant would respond favorably to
investment and a re-emphasis on its core businesses. This helped make the
semiconductor index
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PowerRating) the strongest performing sector so far
today.
The SOX is up 4.84%, retail
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and biotechs
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-2.7%, and insurance
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PowerRating), -2.59%, are the session’s weakest.
Sun Microsystems
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digits after saying sales were doing better than one year ago in the same
period. The stock is up .75 at 10.29. Still, the stock was halted today at
the $11 figure in short-term double-top bars.
T-bond futures are having their biggest move in 13
years following the Treasury Department’s announcement that it would
discontinue the issuance of 30-year debt. The December T-bond contract
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PowerRating) has rallied nearly three whole points, exerting a positive
economic impact desired by the Fed of lower long-term interest rates. Bond
prices have an inverse relationship with their yield.