EURGBP Breaks Out of Its Descending Triangle

EURGBP short to a 3-year and 8 months high of 0.7011 on Thursday breaking
through its July’06 high to close at 0.7000, its highest price since Jan
06’04.This upside offensive is coming on the heels of a third-week of
consecutive higher closes after failing at 0.6738(Sept 04’07 low) low before
breaking through its major emas.

Figure 1: Daily Chart

With EURGBP’s rally off the 0.5689/0.5736 zone, its May/Oct, 2000(Monthly
chart) petering out at 0.7257 in May’03 and later collapsing to a low of 0.6542
in April’04,the cross has been trading in a descending triangle since its
failure at the 0.7257 high before resolving to the upside mid-Sept’07.This
pattern is formed by a lower horizontal line and a falling trendline.Although
this has a bearish implication in terms of breakout direction, it sometimes
resolves to the upside which is typical in EURGBP’s case. The breakout price
target stands at 0.7555 which is established by measuring the wider part of the
range and projecting it from the breakout point. The above price objective
should take weeks and even months to play out.

Figure 2: Weekly Chart

Figure 3: Monthly Chart

Having reignited its medium uptrend, EURGBP now looks to push prices higher
initially towards its April’06 high at 0.7022 ahead of its dec’04 high at
0.7104 with a loss of there paving the way for a run at the 0.7257 level, its
May’03 high. The weekly and monthly RSI and Stochastics are positive and
advancing implying further strength.However, with overbought condition now a
factor on the daily time frame, corrective weakness may be seen towards the
0.6932 level, which marks its Sept 19’07 low at first followed by its breakout
point/.382 Ret (0.6738-0.7011 rally) at 0.6907/5.This is expected to reverse
roles and provide support but if a turn below there occurs, its Mar 14’07/.50
Ret. at 0.6875/68 will be targeted.

On the whole, EURGBP has begun a fresh medium term upside journey having
broken and closed above its monthly descending triangle.

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Mohammed Isah is a professional technical market analyst, mentor
and instructor. He initially traded stocks and now primarily focuses on forex.
He was former market analyst at and currently he is head of
research and technical strategist at, a website dedicated
to currency research. He can be contact at:

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