EUR/JPY hits another record high
EUR/JPY rose further to new record high again today, reaching as high as 149.92 so far. Meanwhile, USD/JPY, GBPJPY and AUDJPY, though firm, are still limited by recent high. EUR/GBP and EUR/CHF remains stable while EUR/USD recovers slightly. This reflects the current market sentiments, i.e., while the overall outlook remains mixed among the majors, except clear weakness in yen, in particular against Euro.
Today’s calendar will be light with market holiday in UK. Focus will remains on FOMC minutes tomorrow and ECB press conference on Thursday, plus numerous other important economic indicators later this week including non-farm payroll. Further consolidation will be likely in today’s quiet market.
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2358; (P) 1.2390; (R1) 1.2427; More.
USD/CHF’s retreat from 1.2422 extends further today, dragging 4 hours MACD below signal line, suggesting a short term top is possibly formed already. Intraday bias is shifted mildly back to the downside and further weakness towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.2339) or lower cannot be ruled out. Break will encourage a retest of 1.2182 cluster support.
However, the short term picture remains mixed as USD/CHF remains bounded within established range between 1.2182 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.1919 to 1.2594 at 1.2177) and 1.2444 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.2594 to 1.2191 at 1.2440).
On the upside, firm break above 1.2444 cluster resistance is needed to signal that further rally is in progress to retest the upper end of the range at 1.2594. Meanwhile, on the downside, a firm break below 1.2182 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.1919 to 1.2594 at 1.2177) is needed to signal decline from 1.2594 has resumed for 1.1919 low. Otherwise, USD/CHF is still considered as in sideway trading between 1.2182 and 1.2594 and further choppy price actions will still follow, with 55 days EMA continues to stay flat.
Shing-Ip Tsui is the founder and CEO of
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