Euro Buyers Don’t Love The Euro. So Why Are They Buying?
BOND MARKET RECAP
3/9/2005
March Bonds finished down 1-19 at 110-27, 0-27
off the high and 0-01 up from the low.
March 10 Yr Treasury Notes finished down 0-265 at
108-295, 0-150 off the high and 0-010 up from the low.
The bears were out in force in the Treasury
market and considering the breadth of bearish fundamentals we are not surprised
at the magnitude of the slide. In fact, we would not be surprised to see
continued declines in the US Dollar send US Treasury prices all the way down to
110 in the coming sessions. The Fed added to the downside pressure by giving an
upbeat outlook on the US economy in the Beige Book and that joined in with the
early energy price rise to give the bonds a little inflation threat. In the end,
the most dominating negative story of the day came from the Junk bond sector,
where a massive amount of supply is expected to come on board and that the
crowning development for the bear camp.
Technical Outlook
BONDS (JUN) 03/10/2005: A crossover down in the
daily stochastics is a bearish signal. Daily stochastics are trending lower but
have declined into oversold territory. The close below the 18-day moving average
is an indication the longer-term trend has turned down. There could be some
early pressure today given the market’s negative setup with the close below the
2nd swing support. The next downside target is now at 109-15. Some caution in
pressing the downside is warranted with the RSI under 30. The next area of
resistance is around 111-22 and 112-30, while 1st support hits today at 109-31
and below there at 109-15.
TNOTES (JUN) 03/10/2005: A bearish signal was
triggered on a crossover down in the daily stochastics. Momentum studies are
declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. The close under the 18-day moving
average indicates the longer-term trend could be turning down. The defensive
setup, with the close under the 2nd swing support, could cause some early
weakness. The next downside target is now at 108-070. The market is approaching
oversold levels on an RSI reading under 30. The next area of resistance is
around 109-120 and 110-005, while 1st support hits today at 108-155 and below
there at 108-070.
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STOCK INDICES RECAP
3/9/2005
March S&P finished down 13.7 at 1211.4, 13.1 off
the high and equal to the low.
March S&P E-Mini closed down 13.5 at 1211.5. This
was 0.5 up from the low and 17 off the high.
March Dow closed down 115 at 10830. This was 5 up
from the low and 120 off the high.
Finally the US stock market caved into to the
growing number of outside negative influences. In addition to further declines
in the US Dollar, which prompted more concern about international money leaving
the US stock market, the market was initially undermined by yet another energy
price rally. Even in the face of a decent US Fed Beige book description of the
US economy the stock market wasn’t consoled and with the market violating a
series of key support levels on the charts it wasn’t difficult to progress into
a moderately large downward thrust. Considering the magnitude of the downside
action it is certainly possible that some additional downside is in the cards.
Technical Outlook
S&P 500 (JUN) 03/10/2005: The daily stochastics
have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. Momentum studies are
trending lower from high levels which should accelerate a move lower on a break
below the 1st swing support. The close below the 18-day moving average is an
indication the longer-term trend has turned down. There could be some early
pressure today given the market’s negative setup with the close below the 2nd
swing support. The next downside target is now at 1201.58. The next area of
resistance is around 1217.95 and 1227.77, while 1st support hits today at
1204.85 and below there at 1201.58.
SP EMINI (JUN) 03/10/2005: The daily stochastics
have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. Stochastics turning
bearish at overbought levels will tend to support lower prices if support levels
are broken. The major trend has turned down with the cross over back below the
18-day moving average. The defensive setup, with the close under the 2nd swing
support, could cause some early weakness. The next downside objective is
1198.13. The next area of resistance is around 1220.25 and 1233.12, while 1st
support hits today at 1202.75 and below there at 1198.13.
NASDAQ (JUN) 03/10/2005: The close under the
40-day moving average indicates the longer-term trend could be turning down.
Stochastics are at mid-range but trending higher, which should reinforce a move
higher if resistance levels are taken out. The major trend has turned down with
the cross over back below the 18-day moving average. The market’s close below
the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. The next upside target is
1553.87. The next area of resistance is around 1542.25 and 1553.87, while 1st
support hits today at 1525.75 and below there at 1520.88.
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CURRENCY MARKET RECAP
3/9/2005
March US Dollar finished down 35 at 8158, 42 off
the high and 13 up from the low.
March Euro finished up 0.56 at 134.29, 0.24 off
the high and 0.7 up from the low.
March Euro Dollar closed down 0.02 at 96.545.
This was 0.01 up from the low and 0.005 off the high.
March Canadian Dollar closed up 0.72 at 83.19.
This was 0.61 up from the low and 0.24 off the high.
March British Pound finished down 0.22 at 191.67,
0.23 off the high and 0.65 up from the low.
March Swiss closed up 0.3 at 86.91. This was 0.54
up from the low and 0.16 off the high.
March Japanese Yen closed up 0.77 at 97.01. This
was 0.36 up from the low and 0.24 off the high.
The Dollar generally fell throughout the session
but didn’t seem to get much of a bounce off the release of the Fed beige book.
Therefore, the path of least resistance is pointing down and we doubt that the
economic report slate is set to alter that trend in the near term. The Fed Beige
book was mostly upbeat but it is becoming even clearer that the Dollar is
falling because of diversification away from the US and not because of interest
rate and economic differential analysis. In short, buyers of the Euro are buying
to get out of the Dollar not because they love the Euro.
Technical Outlook
YEN (JUN) 03/10/2005: The cross over and close
above the 40-day moving average indicates the longer-term trend has turned up. A
bullish signal was given with an upside crossover of the daily stochastics.
Momentum studies are trending higher from mid-range, which should support a move
higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The market now above the 18-day
moving average suggests the longer-term trend has turned up. Follow through
buying looks likely if the market can hold yesterday’s gap on the day session
chart. Since the close was above the 2nd swing resistance number, the market’s
posture is bullish and could see more upside follow-through early in the
session. The next upside objective is 97.57. The next area of resistance is
around 97.30 and 97.57, while 1st support hits today at 96.71 and below there at
96.38.
EURO (JUN) 03/10/2005: Rising stochastics at
overbought levels warrant some caution for bulls. The cross over and close above
the 18-day moving average indicates the longer-term trend has turned up. It is a
mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. The
near-term upside objective is at 135.11. The 9-day RSI over 70 indicates the
market is approaching overbought levels. The next area of resistance is around
134.76 and 135.11, while 1st support hits today at 133.82 and below there at
133.24.
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PRECIOUS METALS RECAP
3/9/2005
April Gold closed up 1.8 at 442.9. This was 3 up
from the low and 0.6 off the high.
March Silver finished up 0.102 at 7.64, 0.04 off
the high and 0.18 up from the low.
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The gold and silver market took some time to get
into the positive stance Wednesday despite the fact that the Dollar was sharply
lower to start the session and finished weak. We also think that sharp early
gains in the energy complex sparked speculative buying in metals and we also
think that violation of additional technical areas on the charts prompted even
more fund longs to enter the fray. Given the size of the stock market slide, the
Dollar slide and lastly the decline in US Treasuries we also suspect that flight
to quality buyers when pulled into the market on the long side. The Fed even
suggested that the scope for inflation was becoming a little more apparent and
that was also supportive.
Technical Outlook
SILVER (MAY) 03/10/2005: The downside crossover
(9 below 18) of the moving averages suggests a developing short-term downtrend.
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. Daily
stochastics have risen into overbought territory which will tend to support
reversal action if it occurs. The major trend could be turning up with the close
back above the 18-day moving average. The outside day up is somewhat positive.
With the close over the 1st swing resistance number, the market is in a
moderately positive position. The next upside objective is 782.5. The market is
becoming somewhat overbought now that the RSI is over 70. The next area of
resistance is around 775.0 and 782.5, while 1st support hits today at 753.1 and
below there at 738.5.
GOLD (APR) 03/10/2005: Studies are showing
positive momentum but are now in overbought territory, so some caution is
warranted. The market now above the 18-day moving average suggests the
longer-term trend has turned up. The close over the pivot swing is a somewhat
positive setup. The near-term upside target is at 445.9. The market is
approaching overbought levels with an RSI over 70. The next area of resistance
is around 444.7 and 445.9, while 1st support hits today at 441.1 and below there
at 438.7.
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COPPER MARKET RECAP
3/9/2005
March Copper closed up 0.40 at 150.35. This was
2.65 up from the low and 0.55 off the high.
The copper market rejected an early selling binge
and finished with some impressive gains. We suspect that recovery action in the
precious metals, a sharply lower US Dollar and news that aluminum and zinc
prices were rising to historical levels sparked some of the buying interest. We
also think that the rather upbeat Fed view toward the US economy was supportive.
However, in the end it still seems like the funds were interested buyers and it
is possible that the spec and fund long is close to 60,000 contracts.
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ENERGY MARKET RECAP
3/9/2005
April Crude Oil closed up 0.15 at 55.38. This was
0.58 up from the low and 0.92 off the high.
April Heating Oil closed up 0.39 at 149.90. This
was 1.60 up from the low and 1.65 off the high.
April Unleaded Gas finished down 0.12 at 156.47,
2.23 off the high and 1.67 up from the low.
April Natural Gas finished up 0.02 at 6.99, 0.07
off the high and 0.04 up from the low.
April Propane closed up 0.03 at 0.87. This was
equal to the low and equal to the high.
The energy complex eventually settled back after
making another impressive run up early in the session. We were a little
surprised with the initial bullish reaction to the weekly inventory data as
crude oil and both the API (+6.2 ml) and DOE (+3.19 ml) rose rather
significantly but yet the market didn’t see that as a direct bearish
development. Also dampening prices around mid session were suggestions from the
OPEC economic advisory Board that current overproduction by OPEC was roughly 1
million barrels per day. We are a little surprised that the market didn’t
maintain the gains into the afternoon session as Venezuela suggested that OPEC
didn’t have any spare excess capacity at the current time.
Technical Outlook
CRUDE OIL (MAY) 03/10/2005: The market made a new
contract high on the rally. The daily stochastics gave a bearish indicator with
a crossover down. Momentum studies trending lower from overbought levels is a
bearish indicator and would tend to reinforce lower price action. The market now
above the 18-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend has turned up. It
is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing
number. The next downside target is 53.97. The market is becoming somewhat
overbought now that the RSI is over 70. The next area of resistance is around
56.13 and 56.96, while 1st support hits today at 54.63 and below there at 53.97.
UNLEADED (MAY) 03/10/2005: Studies are showing
positive momentum but are now in overbought territory, so some caution is
warranted. The cross over and close above the 18-day moving average indicates
the longer-term trend has turned up. The downside closing price reversal on the
daily chart is somewhat negative. The market has a slightly positive tilt with
the close over the swing pivot. The next upside target is 160.51. With a reading
over 70, the 9-day RSI is approaching overbought levels. The next area of
resistance is around 158.42 and 160.51, while 1st support hits today at 154.52
and below there at 152.71.
HEATING OIL (MAY) 03/10/2005: Daily stochastics
have risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action
if it occurs. The cross over and close above the 18-day moving average indicates
the longer-term trend has turned up. The market has a slightly positive tilt
with the close over the swing pivot. The next upside objective is 153.16. The
market is approaching overbought levels with an RSI over 70. The next area of
resistance is around 151.52 and 153.16, while 1st support hits today at 148.28
and below there at 146.67.
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CORN MARKET RECAP
3/9/2005
May Corn finished up 2 at 216 1/4, 1/4 off
the high and 3 up from the low. December Corn closed up 3 1/4 at 238 1/2. This
was 4 up from the low and 1 off the high.
The higher opening failed to attract new fund
buyers who were quite active yesterday and light speculative selling helped push
the market lower on the day. December corn led the market higher in the
afternoon under the trade psychology that the market will need to buy corn acres
through a new crop rally. Recent export news has helped support the market with
the last two optional origin Taiwan tenders going to the US, not Argentina and
the USDA announcing a sale of 120,000 tons of US corn to Egypt this morning.
South Korea bought 110,000 tons of optional origin corn overnight. Traders are
looking for an increase in old crop ending stocks for the USDA Supply/demand
report for release Thursday morning due to the slow export pace. Last months
USDA forecast for ending stocks was 2.01 billion bushels. World ending stocks
could come down slightly due to lower than expected Brazil production.
Deliveries against the March contract totaled 37 contracts this morning. For the
weekly export sales report, released before the opening, traders are looking for
corn sales near 650,000-850,000 tons as compared with 875,600 tons last week.
Support for May corn comes in at 215 with resistance at 218 1/4.
Technical Outlook
CORN (MAY) 03/10/2005: Stochastics trending lower
at midrange will tend to reinforce a move lower especially if support levels are
taken out. The major trend could be turning up with the close back above the
18-day moving average. The market setup is supportive for early gains with the
close over the 1st swing resistance. The next downside target is now at 212 1/2.
The next area of resistance is around 217 3/4 and 218 3/4, while 1st support
hits today at 214 3/4 and below there at 212 1/2.
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SOY COMPLEX RECAP
3/9/2005
May Soybeans finished up 4 at 629 1/2, 2 1/2 off
the high and 7 1/2 up from the low. November Soybeans closed up 3 at 615 1/2.
This was 6 up from the low and 2 off the high.
May Soymeal closed up 0.5 at 181.7. This was 2.5
up from the low and 0.5 off the high.
March Soybean Oil finished up 0.18 at 23.6, 0.07
off the high and 0.25 up from the low.
The market experienced some light speculative
selling with talk of the overbought condition after yesterday’s surge higher.
Rain is in the forecast for southern Brazil which helped pressure the market and
the trade is not seeing fund buying today which was the primary bullish force
for the run-up yesterday. Taiwan bought 60,000 tons of US soybeans overnight
which suggest that US exporters are still competitive on quick-shipment exports.
Traders look for a slight adjustment lower in US ending stocks for the
Supply/demand report for release before the opening Thursday. Mid-west cash
basis levels were steady to higher due to a slowdown in producer selling. For
the weekly export sales report, released before the opening, traders are looking
for soybean sales near 500,000-700,000 tons, meal sales near 50,000-100,000 tons
and oil sales near 3,000-8,000 tons. Resistance for May soybeans comes in at 632
with support at 620.
Technical Outlook
BEANS (MAY) 03/10/2005: A bullish signal was
given with an upside crossover of the daily stochastics. Momentum studies are
trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The market now above the
18-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend has turned up. It is a
mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. The
near-term upside objective is at 638 1/4. The market is becoming somewhat
overbought now that the RSI is over 70. The next area of resistance is around
634 1/2 and 638 1/4, while 1st support hits today at 624 1/2 and below there at
618 1/4.
MEAL (MAY) 03/10/2005: Stochastics turning
bearish at overbought levels will tend to support lower prices if support levels
are broken. The cross over and close above the 18-day moving average indicates
the longer-term trend has turned up. With the close higher than the pivot swing
number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. The next downside target is
182.0. The next area of resistance is around 186.8 and 187.9, while 1st support
hits today at 183.9 and below there at 182.0.
BEANOIL (MAY) 03/10/2005: Rising stochastics at
overbought levels warrant some caution for bulls. The major trend could be
turning up with the close back above the 18-day moving average. With the close
higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture.
The next upside target is 24.09. The market is becoming somewhat overbought now
that the RSI is over 70. The next area of resistance is around 23.87 and 24.09,
while 1st support hits today at 23.41 and below there at 23.18.
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WHEAT MARKET RECAP
3/9/2005
May Wheat finished up 3 1/2 at 340 3/4, 1 1/4 off the high and
4 3/4 up from the low. July Wheat closed up 3 3/4 at 347 1/2. This was 5 1/4 up
from the low and 1 off the high.
News that Egypt bought 60,000 tons of Australian
wheat overnight failed to pressure the market much as US exporters seem to have
had a tough week for optional origin sales but commodity fund buyers have
provided for solid buying support. Fears of increased competition from Europe,
Australia and Argentina have traders looking for weak export news over the
near-term. In addition, winter wheat crop conditions look favorable as the
market comes out of dormancy in the next few weeks. Deliveries against the March
contract totaled 151 lots this morning. South Korea bought 41,500 tons of US
wheat which helped give the market a boost into the mid-session. Strength in
corn and follow-through technical buying from the positive action this week
helped support the buying into the close. For the weekly export sales report,
released before the opening, traders are looking for wheat sales near
275,000-425,000 tons as compared with 507,800 tons last week. May wheat support
comes in at 337 with resistance at 344.
Technical Outlook
WHEAT (MAY) 03/10/2005: The daily stochastics
have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. Rising stochastics at
overbought levels warrant some caution for bulls. The cross over and close above
the 18-day moving average is an indication the longer-term trend has turned
positive. It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot
swing number. The near-term upside target is at 345 3/4. The next area of
resistance is around 343 3/4 and 345 3/4, while 1st support hits today at 337
3/4 and below there at 334.
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LIVE CATTLE RECAP
3/9/2005
April Live Cattle finished up 2.20 at 91.45, 0.80
off the high and 1.92 up from the low.
March Feeder Cattle closed up 1.95 at 105.87.
This was 1.92 up from the low and 0.52 off the high.
June cattle closed 230 higher on the session and
made new contract highs for the 4th session in a row and closed higher on the
day for the 8th session in a row. Cash cattle traded at $94.00 which sparked
aggressive speculative and then fund buying in June cattle which opened at
$85.30. In anticipation of a hefty supply of beef for post Easter beef features,
wholesalers are caught short-bought and both live and boxed prices are on fire.
Cattle in the plains were bid at $87.00 in the morning with offers of $93.00 but
there were rumors late in the session that packer bids were up near $93.00.
Boxed-beef cut-out values at mid-session were up $2.33 to $153.59 as compared
with $141.40 last week. Slaughter came in at 119,000 head from trade
expectations for 114,000-120,000 head.
Technical Outlook
CATTLE (APR) 03/10/2005: Daily stochastics have
risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it
occurs. The market now above the 18-day moving average suggests the longer-term
trend has turned up. The gap up on the day session chart gave a bullish
indicator and more follow through could be seen this session. Since the close
was above the 2nd swing resistance number, the market’s posture is bullish and
could see more upside follow-through early in the session. The near-term upside
objective is at 93.870. The market is becoming somewhat overbought now that the
RSI is over 70. The next area of resistance is around 92.800 and 93.870, while
1st support hits today at 90.100 and below there at 88.450.
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LEAN HOGS RECAP
3/9/2005
April Lean Hogs finished down 1.52 at 74.57, 1.42
off the high and 0.42 up from the low.
March Pork Bellies closed down 2.75 at 86.30.
This was 0.25 up from the low and 2.60 off the high.
The market closed sharply lower as fund selling
pushed the market into stops which drove June hogs down near 200 points on the
day before a bounce into the close. Packer profit margins are deep in the red
which has caused slaughter to dip below trade expectations. After a sharp rally
in the cash market since Thursday, pork cut-out values have not followed higher.
Talk that ham prices collapsed as retailers are done buying for Easter added to
the bearish tone. The 2-day lean index for the period ending March 7th came in
at 72.06, up.85 on the session and up from 70.33 last week at this time.
Slaughter came in at 381,000 head from trade expectations for 385,000-395,000
head. This is the second day in a row where slaughter came in under the range of
estimates which indicates weak packer demand.
Technical Outlook
HOGS (APR) 03/10/2005: The major trend has turned
down with the cross over back below the 40-day moving average. The daily
stochastics gave a bearish indicator with a crossover down. Stochastics turning
bearish at overbought levels will tend to support lower prices if support levels
are broken. The market now above the 18-day moving average suggests the
longer-term trend has turned up. The close below the 2nd swing support number
puts the market on the defensive. The next downside objective is now at 73.000.
The next area of resistance is around 75.500 and 76.650, while 1st support hits
today at 73.670 and below there at 73.000.
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COCOA MARKET RECAP
3/9/2005
May Cocoa finished down 31 at 1738, 38 off the
high and 9 up from the low.
As we suggested yesterday the cocoa market was
due for a correction considering the overbought technical condition and the
somewhat suspect nature of the bull fundamentals. Even a lower Dollar failed to
support the cocoa and that is an indication of the need to balance the
technicals in this market. Some in the trade were disappointed with the fact
that Ivory Coast tensions weren’t once again key headline developments. Critical
near term support on the charts might not come in until the $1,700 level is
encountered basis the May cocoa contract. We suspect that the cocoa market was
close to holding a record spec and fund long position around the highs Tuesday
and that could easily facilitate a couple days of long liquidation.
Technical Outlook
COCOA (MAY) 03/10/2005: The daily stochastics
have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. Daily stochastics turning
lower from overbought levels is bearish and will tend to reinforce a downside
break especially if near term support is penetrated. The market now above the
18-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend has turned up. There could
be some early pressure today given the market’s negative setup with the close
below the 2nd swing support. The next downside target is 1699. The next area of
resistance is around 1761 and 1792, while 1st support hits today at 1715 and
below there at 1699.
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COFFEE MARKET RECAP
3/9/2005
May Coffee closed down 1.10 at 131.75. This was
2.75 up from the low and 2.25 off the high.
May coffee closed 110 lower on the session but up
275 from the lows of the day as trade house and commercial buying emerged to
slow the early collapse. Profit-taking emerged from large traders after May
futures rallied 1415 points in just 3 session. Brazil sold 86.2% of the 85,000
bags offered at auction on Wednesday. Forecasts for rain in the Brazil producing
region may have helped pressure and when London May futures made new multi-year
highs by just 1 tick before closing sharply lower, long liquidation selling
pressured the market.
Technical Outlook
COFFEE (MAY) 03/10/2005: Daily stochastics have
risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it
occurs. The cross over and close above the 18-day moving average is an
indication the longer-term trend has turned positive. It is a slightly negative
indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The next upside objective is
136.60. With a reading over 70, the 9-day RSI is approaching overbought levels.
The next area of resistance is around 134.25 and 136.60, while 1st support hits
today at 129.30 and below there at 126.65.
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SUGAR MARKET RECAP
3/9/2005
May Sugar closed up 0.04 at 9.00. This was 0.07
up from the low and 0.05 off the high.
May sugar closed slightly higher on the session
with trade house buying helping to support. Volume was light and fund traders
were on the sidelines which kept trade choppy. Surging energy prices are
expected to keep ethanol demand in Brazil and other countries solid and traders
are still uncertain if Brazil ethanol exports will stabilize or maybe improve
for the coming year. While the trade expects a record crop from Brazil this
year, some of the center-south region is dry. Sugar dealers in Brazil believe
Brazil ethanol demand will continue to rise with 40,000 flex fuel cars per month
hitting the market. A lower close in London helped keep buyers on the sidelines.
Technical Outlook
SUGAR (MAY) 03/10/2005: A bullish signal was
given with an upside crossover of the daily stochastics. The stochastics
indicators are rising from oversold levels, which is bullish and should support
higher prices. The major trend has turned down with the cross over back below
the 18-day moving average. The close over the pivot swing is a somewhat positive
setup. The near-term upside objective is at 9.11. The next area of resistance is
around 9.06 and 9.11, while 1st support hits today at 8.94 and below there at
8.88.
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COTTON MARKET RECAP
3/9/2005
May Cotton finished up 0.48 at 52.00, 0.40 off
the high and 0.75 up from the low.
May cotton managed to move to the highest level
since September 15th on continued strong buying from fund traders and strength
in other Agricultural markets. High energy prices have traders convinced that
cotton demand will be much stronger than polyester and the surge in soybean
values have eased fears that US planted acreage might move up for this year. For
the weekly export sales report, released before the opening, traders are looking
for cotton sales near 75,000-150,000 bales as compared with 220,600 bales last
week. The monthly USDA Supply/Demand report, also released before the open is
not expected to hold many surprises, particularly the US report portion.
Technical Outlook
COTTON (MAY) 03/10/2005: Studies are showing
positive momentum but are now in overbought territory, so some caution is
warranted. The major trend could be turning up with the close back above the
18-day moving average. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the
market is in a slightly bullish posture. The next upside target is 53.06. The
9-day RSI over 70 indicates the market is approaching overbought levels. The
next area of resistance is around 52.57 and 53.06, while 1st support hits today
at 51.43 and below there at 50.77.