Euro commodity crosses prepare to break out

EURAUD— Last week’s comments that “a resisting trendline from October 1998 (using synthetic prices until 1999) limits upside potential at around 1.7300” are still valid. EUR/AUD topped out on 7/3 at .7265 and has since declined this past week to just south of the 38.2% fibo of 1.6816-1.7266 at 1.7094. Slight bullish divergence on the hourly indicates weakening downside momentum and a potential bounce that would then pave then pave the way for additional losses towards the confluence of the 38.2% fibo of 1.6363-1.7359 / 6/19 low at 1.6979/84.

EURCAD — EUR/CAD has also comes off of highs from 7/3 at 1.4308 and the pair now trades near the 1.4200 figure. A rally yesterday was rejected at the 61.8% fibo of 1.4308-1.4100 at 1.4229. The pair has been consolidating in an upward sloping channel since the beginning of the year and price bounced off of the lower supporting trendline of the channel on 6/13. Thus, strength past the 7/4 high at 1.4267 could see a rally to test the upper resisting line near 1.4500. On the other hand, looses below the 7/5 low at the psychological 1.4100 argues for a return to the lower portion of the channel near 1.3900. The pair is sort of in a ‘wait and see’ situation.

EURNZD — EUR/NZD has digested gains the past week and the hourly shows a short term ascending triangle that began on 6/28. Current price tests the lower supporting trendline at 2.1050. The upper end of the ascending triangle is defined by a triple top with highs from 6/28, 7/3, 7/6 and today from 2.1168 to 2.1187. Ascending triangles tend to be bullish continuation patterns. However, hourly oscillators are declining and daily CCI has turned down and crossed below 100 — an occurrence that tends to mark turning points.