Euro Sent Lower by Weak German Domestic Demand

While Euro remains firm in the EUR/JPY cross, it weakened against dollar and sterling after final German Q4 GDP data. Overall GDP growth in Germany was confirmed to be 0.9% qoq, 3.5% yoy, which is impressive. And that was actually the figure that boosted Euro higher last week. So, why Euro was pressured just one week after? The reason lies in the details of the report. The strong growth was mainly attributed to upside surprise in export which accelerated from 4.5% to 6.0%. Other components are pretty weak. Domestic demand dropped -1.3% with, government consumption dropped -0.1% comparing to prior quarter’s 0.7% growth. Private consumption slowed to 0.3% from 0.7% in prior quarter. Some euro long positions were also closed with tomorrow’s event risk of Ifo index in sight.


Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3112; (P) 1.3138; (R1) 1.3165;


EUR/USD’s retreat from 1.3187 extends further to 1.3097 today. As discussed before, further decline is still in favor as long as EUR/USD stays below 1.3142 resistance. However, we’d expect downside to be contained by 1.3034 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.2939 to 1.3187 at 1.3034) and bring rally resumption. Above 1.3142 will indicate the retreat has possibly completed and should bring retest of 1.3187 high. Sustained break of 1.3173 fibo resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.3364 to 1.2865 at 1.3173) will indicate the current rally has resumed for 1.3296 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, decisive break of 1.3052/57 cluster resistance indicates that the whole decline from 1.3364 has already completed at 1.2865. It also saved the case that medium term up trend from 1.1639 is still in progress with EUR/USD kept inside the rising channel (lower channel at 1.2814 now). Break of 1.3296 resistance will suggest the rise from 1.2483 has possibly resumed and EUR/USD could make a new high above 1.3364 before finally making a medium term top.

However, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI, upside of the current rise could be limited by resistance zone of 1.3668 (04 high) and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. Firm break below 1.3034 cluster support will argue that the whole rebound from 1.2865 has completed and bring retest of this low. Break below 1.2865 again will confirm that the whole fall from 1.3364 has resumed. In such case, focus will then be switched back to 1.2760 support and 1.2483 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.1639 to 1.3364 at 1.2502) again.

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Shing-Ip Tsui is the founder and CEO of ActionForex is set up with the aim to empower individual forex traders by providing insightful contents. Analysis reports, live pivot points on majors and crosses, etc are provided with collection of carefully selected educational articles and free trading ebook downloads.