Expect Low Volatility Before Wednesday’s Fed Announcement
Friday left us with a mixed day on lower volume. The Nasdaq Composite eked out a green day, while the Nas 100, S&P 500 and the Dow all closed slightly red.
This marked the second consecutive down week on the Nas 100 and composite and the S&P 500.
For the Dow this is the first down week. Still not seeing this as anything but corrective action and a small pullback.
Even with the down action, it has still left the market in a range.
Well Friday gave us the drop into support and light volume as expected. Now into Monday earnings continue to come out and with the FOMC meeting hanging over us until Wednesday. We may start the week pretty quiet and hold this range. The NDX and SPX can still drop a little lower before we get much panic started. Which means some early weakness on Monday and then bounce. I am expecting very little from Monday and Tuesday so prepare for holding pattern action until after we hear from the Fed on Wednesday. This is the last few trading days of January, so any surprises into Wednesday could generate some settling of positions and see some bigger money come into the market.
Economic Data for the Week: Monday nothing due out, Tuesday 10:00 Consumer Confidence, Wednesday 8:30 Employment Cost Index, 08:30 GDP Adv., 09:45 Chicago PMI, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:30 Crude Inventories, 14:15 FOMC Policy statement, Thursday 8:30 Personal Income, 08:30 Personal Spending, 08:30 Initial Claims, 10:00 ISM Index, 10:30 Natural Gas inventories, 12:00 Chain Store Sales, 17:00 Auto Sales, 17:00 Truck Sales, Friday 08:30Nonfarm Payrolls, 08:30 Unemployment Rate, 08:30 Hourly Earnings, 08:30 Average Workweek, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:00 Mich Sentiment Rev.
Some earnings for the week: Monday pre market CMI, JBHT, PD, SGP, TSN, VZ and after the close GNSS, GOL, VLTR, ZMH. Tuesday pre market MMM, CME, CFC, JBLU, LXK, MRK, PCAR, PG, UPS, LCC, WYE and after the bell ADPT, AMLN, CTS, JNPR, LSS, RBAK, SNDK, SIRF, X.
Wednesday pre market ACS, AGN, MO, BA, BOT, D, LLY, IR, LLL, NMX, OXPS, PTIE, SEPR, TWX, and after the bell CAI, DLLR, EOG, GILD, GOOG, MCHP, SWIR, SBUX, TUP, VRSN, WEBX, WU, WGL. Thursday pre market AGU, ASD, ADM, BSX, CELG, CLX, EOP, XOM, ITWO, IP, MHO, MRO, MNST, MYL, NUCO, HOT, UTEK, UA, VLO and after the bell AMZN, ANPI, ASYT, ATML, BKHM, CA, ERTS, ISRG, NBIX, ONNN, RACK, VRTX, WEBM, YRCW. Friday pre market AXL, ACI, CVX, ERIC, NYX, R, THQI, WEN. These are just some of the earnings on the week that maybe of interest, also keep in mind they can move without notice.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Monday’s pivot is 1427.50, the weekly is 1432.50. Friday we traded into 1422 and held. Bounced off as expected and held in range. Monday I will look for a retest of that low and we could pretty easily tip on down to 1419.50 area and then find some upside. Don’t expect big ranges on Monday and Tuesday, if they come it will be a gift, but I expect some smaller ranges until after the FOMC on Wednesday. Intra day support: 1422, 1419.50, 1417.75, 1414.50, 1412.25. Resistance to look for: 1431.50, 1434.25-1434.75, 1436, 1438, 1442.50. 60 minute chart is below.
BKX (Banks) closed +.22 at 116.99. Support: 116.61, 116.25, 115.78, 115.32. Resistance: 117.15, 117.69, 118.00, 118.35, 119.05. Daily sector below
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