Expect More Volatility

  • August 18, 2000
  • Kevin Haggerty

Techs
and brokers led the uptrend day with
the semis up again at +3.5% and the XBD +3.9%. The financials are pretty
extended and the August expected no-rate-hike seems to be priced into them. We
will look for some air-pocket shorts in that group soon. 


The biotechs gave us an up
day at +3.15% and they seemed to move whenever the infamous “they”
want to make them move.


The momentum stocks, which
are being run at will by the buy side institutions and market makers, staged a
multipoint day as most of them were green and strong all day. 


The S&P 500 cash traded
up early to 1486.30 by the 9:50 a.m. ET bar, before making a three-bar pullback
to three converging EMAs, the 20-, 60- and 260- on your five-minute charts. The
index hit 1480.30 and then gave us an inside bar with a top-of-the-range
close. 


Good entry was above the
high of that bar, 1482.75. The index then traded up to the familiar resistance
level of 1495 on 13 bars. 


Sound familiar? Three,
five, eight, 13: all Fibonacci numbers which constantly appear on pullbacks or
retracements up or down.


The S&P 500 then pulled
back eight bars to the 20-period EMA at about 1491.78 (1490 was the .38
retracement level) and it then was in an uptrend for the rest of the day,
hitting a high of 1499.32, before closing at 1496.07, as it sticks like a magnet
to the resistance level of 1495. 


The option expiration teams
did their thing all day long, as most all of the key S&P 500 stocks had good
upside moves. 


The Nasdaq 100
(
NDX |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating)
had a good pop, finishing +2.94%. It has now broken the down trendline on a
closing basis and has also closed above the last swing point high. This rally of
11 days has had only two pullback days, as it has now made a higher high and a
higher low. 


Needless to say, the
option-expiration volatility and the tech buyers gave daytraders another good
day, which is three out of four on the week, going into today.














face=”arial, helvetica”>(September Futures)


Fair
Value

size=2>Buy

size=2>Sell


6.70


7.90

5.60


Pattern
Setups


Ariba
(
ARBA |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), PMC Sierra
(
PMCS |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating),
Advanced Micro Devices
(
AMD |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), Applied Micro Circuits
(
AMCC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), JDS
Uniphase
(
JDSU |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), Juniper
(
JNPR |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), Broadcom
(
BRCM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), Cardinal Health
(
CAH |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), MRV Communications
(
MRVC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), Micron Technology
(
MU |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), ST
Microelectronics
(
STM |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), American International Group
(
AIG |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), American
Express
(
AXP |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating), and Corning
(
GLW |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating).


Also EMC
(
EMC |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) (in case they want
to run it to par), and Oracle
(
ORCL |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating).


 Have a good trading day.


 



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