Focus on Retail and Housing Sectors This Week
Tuesday started the day off strong and continued with a close on the highs. Volume was very light and it will continue to stay light until after New Years. Despite the absence of earnings and economic data today we still were able to find pockets of movement. Retail, gold, metals and financials were all moving today. Retail is likely to be in focus all week and housing probably will bring volatility with data due out this week on housing.
Crude moved down today after trading as high as $63.10 to close at $61.10 down $1.31. Very volatile day for crude, but Iran’s saber rattling didn’t pressure the market and we still saw a nice drop. Gold closed up $4.60 on the day at $626.90. could be some safe haven mentality there, but pretty doubtful given the Iran threats were not taken to seriously from the looks of oil.
Tuesday brought a nice bounce after last weeks sell off. The retracement was on light volume, but remember last weeks sell off was also on light volume. So until after the holiday volume will be a problem. We are nearing the end of the month, but I don’t expect that to change the light volume issue. Most positions were probably taken prior to the holiday and cleaned up then as well.
Wednesday we need to watch for the NDX (Nas 100) to test the 50dma (1763.05) which is just overhead. The Nas Composite climbed back over and closed positively Tuesday, but we need to watch that support to hold now and stay above 2403.90. The Dow along with the S&P 500 are holding well and also put in nice days recovering most of Friday’s losses. We will be looking again for some upside and for light volume. Which means a slower pace and definitely watch the overtrading. Don’t try to trade every tick, something sets up it is just a matter of waiting for it.
Data for the Week of December 25th— 29th
Wednesday 10:00 New Home Sales, Thursday 08:30 Initial Claims , 10:00 Consumer Confidence, 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 10:30 Crude inventories, Friday 10:00 Chicago PMI, 10:00 Help Wanted Index.
Some earnings for the week: lightest week of the year, only one company is on the calendar for the week and that is LTRE Thursday pre market.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Wednesday’s pivot is 1426.50, the weekly is 1428.50. Fridays highs of 1430 are just over head and we should watch for a retest of that level, break there would likely lift us up to 1434.75 and onto 1436. Failure to break through 1430 send us back to 1425.75 and onto 1421.75.
Intra day Support: 1425.75, 1423.50, 1421.75, 1419.75, 1416.25. Resistance: 1429, 1431.25, 1434.75, 1436-1437, 1439, 1444. 60 minute chart is below.
ER (Russell 2000 e-mini) Wednesday’s pivot is 792.30, the weekly is 789.50. Intra day Support: 792.50, 791.10, 790.90, 789.70, 788.3, 786.90. Resistance: 795.60, 796.80, 798.7, 800.5, 803.4. 60 minute chart is below
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