Forex Trader Top 3: G7, Worldwide Food Prices, and Consumer Sentiment
Mark Whistler is the founder of www.WallStreetRockStar.com and is the author of multiple books on trading. Mark’s newest book, The Swing Trader’s Bible – co-authored with CNBC/Fox News regular guest Matt McCall – will be on shelves in late summer, 2008. In addition, Mark also writes regularly for TraderDaily.com and Investopedia.com.
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1. FYI: G7 Today – USD Bears and FOMC are Cozying up Nicely
The News
Friday at 2:00 PM EST, G7 Head Honchos meet in Washington for their regular quarterly meeting. Following the meeting, at 6:45 PM EST, US Treasury Secretary Paulson will deliver a press briefing regarding any discussions and/or outcomes.
The Breakdown
Today’s G7 meeting is a whopper… The G7 is comprised of: US, UK, Canada, Japan, Germany, France and Italy and they’ll all be in Washington. What’s more, the meeting also happens to coincide with meetings of the IMF and World Bank this weekend.
At the G7, the subject of the U.S. dollar’s depreciation and strength in the euro will likely be a hotspot. In the World Economic Update 2008 – April, the IMF said, “Accordingly, the European Central Bank can afford some easing of the policy stance.”
The strong euro needs to cool in order for economic growth to evenly spread throughout Europe. Case in point, because the pound is trading at lows against the euro, many British vacationers are opting to avoid the EC, simply because it’s too expensive.
The Bottom Line
If any news surfaces from today’s G7 meeting of curbing the strength in the euro, expect a huge rally in the U.S. dollar. News of the contrary will push the dollar to new lows.
2. Global Food Prices: Commodity Boom Not Over
The News:
It’s not news you’re going to find in mainstream American media. Globally, food shortages are sparking violence, protectionist policy, and hording. This week alone food riots broke out in Africa, food hording is suspected by traders in Thailand and countries like China and India are implementing protectionist trade tariffs to keep domestic farming production from being exported.
The Breakdown
The present commodity boom has left the world’s best economists dumbfounded. Why? Measuring previous commodity booms throughout the world, the present scenario is longer – and included higher prices overall – than ever seen before. In the recent April update of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, the organization had this to say:
“In sum, the comparison of the current commodity price boom with earlier ones suggests that the current boom has been more broad-based and longer lasting and that prices have risen by more than usual. This suggests that the current boom reflects a confluence of mutually reinforcing demand and supply factors, as well as effects both of the increasingly important links among commodity markets (such as between the prices for oil and food and the production of biofuels) and of supportive financial conditions, including U.S. dollar depreciation and low real interest rates).”
Ironically, corn crops being planted in the United States – though still near record highs – are 8% lower in 2008, over the previous year. Many farmers opted to plant soybeans instead. Corn is expensive to produce, but given that the United States has a 54-cent a gallon tariff for Brazil’s cheaper sugarcane ethanol, farmers know that they can:
1. Plant less corn
2. Know they will receive higher prices
3. Plant even more soy for export, making even more money.
The United States tariff on Brazilian sugarcane is artificially increasing food prices. But the U.S. isn’t the only one…
In December of 2007, China voided a 13% tax rebate on 84 categories of grain and grain products, according to Olivia Chung of Asia Times Online.
“China also imposed export tariffs ranging from 5% to 25% on 57 categories of major grains and powder products from January 1. Export quotas were also set on rice, corn and wheat powders to regulate overseas sales of milled grain flour,” Chung said.
Most countries have sky-high food tariffs, not just China and the U.S.
The Bottom Line:
At the end of the day, global protectionist tariffs are the main catalyst behind elevated commodity prices. But most governments don’t want you to know that. The mainstream media doesn’t understand it… and that’s why you haven’t read about it yet.
Unless global food tariffs are reduced, food shortages will continue, worldwide poverty could grow, and commodity prices will remain high.
3. Take Friday’s Consumer Sentiment Numbers with a Grain of Salt
The News:
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Numbers will be released today – Most likely, they will not impress.
The Breakdown:
Without even discussing the numbers, did you know the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey (which is included in U.S. leading indicators) is merely a telephone survey of 500 consumers? That’s only 10-people in each state.
The Bottom Line:
While the survey is touted in mainstream media, I can’t gauge the entire sentiment factor of America on 500 people, or 10-people per state. It’s almost laughable. But then again, most people don’t even know what comprises the news they read about.