Four Steps to Taking Intelligent Trading Risks
In the month of January a lot of hedge fund managers were encountering
enormous difficulties. Some complained of being in a “trading funk where nothing
worked.” Others “couldn’t get it right” and lost confidence in their day-to-day
decision-making ability. Volatility expanded rapidly during a four-week span,
and no one expected the numbers to be as bad as they turned out to be. Some held
on stubbornly, refusing to take their positions down, believing that things
would turn around. The trades were crowded; some thought that they should have
been more aggressive in hedging and should have reduced the size of their
positions.
This reminded me of one trader, Everett whom I had talked to a while back,
who admitted that he was in some trades that were relatively new for him and he
increased his risk by adding to trades that turned out to be different ways of
expressing the same bet. Unfortunately, his risk systems weren’t really in
place. He apparently also took his eye off the ball by getting involved in so
many unfamiliar trades and assuming that the macro trades were good.
In fact, his problems had a lot to do with his method of information
gathering and the stress he was experiencing as a result of his recent losses.
And the lessons he learned could be seen as applying to many traders at the
start of 2008. In order to get back on track, traders have to better
differentiate the so-called noise from the information available to them and to
become more active in the management of positions. At times of high volatility
and market downturns, traders have to trade fewer strategies, reduce the size of
their relative value trades, become more active in the macro sphere, and become
more contrarian. They also need to achieve better risk control by getting out of
positions that aren’t working. They need to keep moving and not become paralyzed
by the price action.
Everett is far from being the only trader with issues about information
gathering. The process can be stressful, especially for nonanalytical types.
Some people are naturally wired to take extreme risks with insufficient
information or thoughtfulness. For these traders, the practice of digging deeper
can seem mundane and trigger a variety of anxiety responses. Beyond this, their
aversion to analysis and a lack of confidence in their intellectual prowess
hamper them, especially at times when things aren’t working.
Too Much, or Too Little?
Conversely, traders who become too absorbed with information gathering can
also create added stress for themselves. They spend too much time digging in and
too little time actually placing the bet. Traders who are obsessed with getting
the whole picture right can increase their levels of stress when they gain too
much information to adequately process it or use it, or when they postpone
action in order to gain more information.
Of course, some traders may come into the process of information gathering
already besieged by anxiety, and this anxiety can actually interfere with how
they gather and perceive data. As a result they lack the psychological energy to
think strategically and to look for original ways of examining the material they
collect. For example, they may fail to seek out innovative perspectives that
might give them an angle on company change. Stress-ridden traders forget to keep
triangulating information — checking with a variety of sources to prove or
disprove a theory, as well as double-checking data to ensure accurate stock
judgment.
Other anxious traders lack the patience to gather data points from a variety
of perspectives so as to form their own conclusions or make their own decisions.
Instead, they may be too quick to act on inadequate information and tend to
believe in their ideas rather than developing a skeptical or agnostic view of
their analyses. Moreover, they may become too attached to ideas and inclined to
be unwilling to be flexible or adaptable in the face of new information and
perspectives.
An almost phobic avoidance of stress may keep other traders from stretching
to obtain more information or from asking difficult questions, because they are
fearful of appearing foolish or wrong. Neglecting information gathering can only
lead to more losses, which subsequently only lead to more stress.
Actually, the process of information gathering can be a way of helping reduce
anxiety. When a trader is as prepared as he possibly can be and is trading on
the basis of reliable information or research, his levels of anxiety should be
less than if he were taking a shot in the dark.
To take increased risk in the marketplace requires a combination of
understanding the fundamentals and having the courage to trade your convictions.
Trading bigger requires more data gathering and processing so as to produce
results.
Four Steps to Taking Bigger Risks
1. Create an information edge so that you are ahead of the curve.
2. Have a thesis that you can support with data.
3. Assess the sources of the data.
4. Trade on the basis of this data against others in the marketplace.
The trader who understands risk will pay attention to corporate numbers and
guidance and will try to analyze the relevance of these numbers to where the
company stands relative to its major competitors. He is also able to
differentiate between companies and does not simply trade noise or daily
movement.
The best traders focus on the company balance sheet, earnings reports, and an
assessment of the growth prospects of the company. They also compare the company
on a relative valuation basis to other companies in the same space. They
consider the state of the economy and any significant macroeconomic variables,
such as Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, the cost of energy, and the cost of
doing business, and try to assess the nature of the market at the time.
To improve your data, ask yourself: Is this a market that is trading on
fundamentals, or is it trading on macroeconomic variables and market sentiment?
Then try to get a handle on relevant short-term catalysts — fresh earnings
news, changes in top executives, new technology, for example — that may
influence the market’s perception of the value of a stock. Once you take these
steps, you can try to make a calculated bet on the impact this data will have on
the price of the stock.
Master traders are likely to factor all these things against their past
experience in trading the stock, and may buy or sell some of the stock to get a
feel as to how the stock is trading. Here they are also interested in the price
action and what that tells them about the supply and demand characteristics of
the stock — how it is trading based on an interest in buying or selling it
among other investors and traders.
With all this data analysis, they then try to determine the risk/reward
profile of a particular trade in terms of its upside versus the downside of the
trade. To the extent that it fits within their parameters (say a 3:1 risk/reward
ratio) they enter into the trade, all the time being careful to balance the
trade in terms of their net long or short exposure. Oftentimes they hedge a bet
by making a comparable trade in the opposite direction or by holding options,
which they use to leverage their bet and protect their downside risk.
Ari Kiev, M.D. is a world-renowned psychiatrist and
author. Dr. Kiev has authored more than 20 books,
including the best seller Trading to Win: The Psychology of Mastering
the Markets. Visit his website here.